How Trump lost the coalition that put him in the White House

President Donald Trump forged an extraordinary coalition to win office in 2024, stitching together his base with unusual support from some traditional Democratic groups like Hispanics and young people. It was enough to sweep the battleground states and catapult him into office for a second term.

The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows that coalition is now seriously weakened.

Since the beginning of his second term, the president’s net approval rating among Latino voters has dropped from -22 to -38, and declined from -28 to -53 among 18- to 34-year olds. Black respondents have moved from -55 to -67.

Among all registered voters, his approval has fallen from -7 at the start of his term to -19 in the most recent survey. 

The decline in the president’s approval carries over into the Republican base. Approval from self-described Trump voters has fallen from a net +85 in 2025 to a net of +65. Net approval has even turned negative in the South, from +2 in 2025 to -20 in the latest survey. 

The results of the latest poll show why Republicans are facing an uphill battle in the midterm elections next week. Trump is not on the ballot — but his presence will be felt. 

Read the full survey results here.

To be sure, Republicans in the survey still give the president an 82% approval rating, and those who say they identify with the MAGA movement are at 90%. But interest in the election is 10 points lower among Republicans than it is for Democrats, and in tight races, the party that better turns out its voters will have an advantage.

The survey of 1,000 registered voters nationwide found 44% of respondents say their biggest worry if Republicans control Congress is allowing President Trump to operate beyond his constitutional power. By contrast, 28% say their biggest worry for Democratic control is passing policies of Democratic Socialists. For either party’s control, registered voters worry that Congress won’t do enough to bring down prices.

The survey was conducted Oct. 14-18, and was co-led by Democratic pollster Hart Research Associates and Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. 

As a second-term president who had skipped four years between terms, Trump’s arc of approval has followed an unusual path. The president left office above water on the economy, with 48% approving and 41% disapproving — high numbers for a president whose last year was overwhelmed by the Covid pandemic.

But there was no second-term honeymoon. Trump was immediately underwater in his economic approval rating in the April 2025 CNBC survey. That could have reflected immediate public discontent with the tariff regime and resulting market turmoil. The president’s economic approval rating remained negative through most of his first year.

The bottom dropped out, however, with the launch of the Iran war. By April 2026, the president’s net economic approval…