Apple iPhone Duo demand, pricing and revenue impact

Apple‘s iPhone Duo, its most expensive iPhone ever, went up for preorder Friday, with launch-day pickup inventory selling out and some online delivery estimates already slipping into late January.

The company said in a statement that the preorder demand was “nothing short of extraordinary.”

“We are working hard to get this revolutionary new product into customers’ hands as quickly as possible, and we will continue accepting orders online,” Apple said.

Apple’s first foldable phone starts at $1,999 and passes $3,000 at the 2TB storage tier. It is the biggest change to the physical design of the iPhone in years and establishes an entirely new price point above the Pro and Pro Max.

The early rush offers a first glimpse at the demand behind Apple’s bet: Whether a dramatic new design can persuade customers to spend more and push the iPhone even further as a status symbol.

But analysts who spoke with CNBC said Apple’s bet is not that foldables suddenly become a mass-market product. It is that a relatively small group of its highest-spending customers can become significantly more valuable.

Foldables are expected to make up just over 2% of global smartphone units this year but nearly 7% of industry revenue, according to IDC. By 2030, IDC expects the category to account for 10% of smartphone revenue while still representing only about 3% of units.

That gap between volume and value is central to Apple’s opportunity.

“Duo is fast becoming an aspirational foldable,” IDC’s Nabila Popal told CNBC, comparing its appeal with Apple’s broader position as an aspirational smartphone brand.

Popal, global senior research director for the Consumer Device Team at IDC, said the technology itself is not necessarily the breakthrough. Foldable Android phones have existed for years. What’s new is Apple bringing that form factor to the enormous base of consumers already invested in the iPhone ecosystem.

Apple itself has been exploring the form factor for more than a decade. In 2011, Ternus and five other Apple engineers filed a patent application for foldable electronic devices, according to a recent Time profile.

“It’s not that it’s a breakthrough or new technology, but it’s from Apple,” Popal said.

The Duo could also prove more accessible than some industry watchers had anticipated.

Anshel Sag, an analyst at Moor Insights who attended Apple’s launch event, said many expected the foldable iPhone to start between $2,400 and $2,500.

Apple coming in at $1,999, Sag said, suggests the company “wants a lot of share.”

Sag expects the Duo to become “very much a status symbol” during the holiday season and potentially into next year.

That status appeal could be reinforced by scarcity.

Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak told CNBC the firm…