Why Trump and GOP’s billion-dollar midterm election blitz isn’t working
WASILLA, ALASKA – OCTOBER 13: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during an election rally at the Menard Memorial Sports Center on October 13, 2026 in Wasilla, Alaska. President Trump is in Alaska campaigning for local Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
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A billion-dollar war chest was meant to be Republicans’ great equalizer heading into a bleak midterm election environment defined by economic frustration, President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and fallout from the war in Iran.
So far it hasn’t worked.
From Labor Day through Oct. 14, GOP groups injected more than $740 million into congressional races that will determine control of Congress, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data. That includes at least $220 million in spending from Trump-linked groups. Elon Musk has separately given another $276 million to Republican groups since July and helped boost the GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund super PAC to a record quarter.
Yet with less than three weeks until the Nov. 3 Election Day, the spending blitz has barely moved the map. Democrats lead in FiftyPlusOne’s polling averages across nine of the Senate’s most competitive races – Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas – little changed from before the Republican spending spree. Minnesota was expected to be solidly blue, making its tight race a concern for Democrats.
And Republican political operatives and independent election observers CNBC spoke with say the money hasn’t had the effects its magnitude would be expected to in voter sentiment.
Meanwhile, the broader battlefield continues to deteriorate for Republicans. Democrats are favored to flip the House and remain competitive in the Senate, according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, forcing the GOP to burn millions protecting once-safe seats while abandoning former pickup targets.
“Money is an amplifier, not a magic wand,” said Neil Newhouse, partner at Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. “You can buy all the airtime in the world, but if the political climate is blowing 30 miles an hour in your face, ad volume alone isn’t going to turn the weather around.”
The new stickers can be seen as people go to Beulah Heights University to cast their vote on the first day of early voting on October 13, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia.
Megan Varner | Getty Images
Musk flooding the zone
Republicans entered the final stretch of the midterm election with unusually deep pockets.
MAGA Inc. had nearly $416 million on hand at the end of August, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Across the broader ecosystem, major Republican organizations had roughly $1 billion available, eclipsing the $579 million available for comparable Democratic groups, according to a CNBC analysis of Federal Election Commission filings.
Then came Musk — after saying he’d be less involved in this year’s…
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