IMF lifts 2026 global growth forecast but resilience is nearing limits

BANGKOK — The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for global growth this year as the AI-driven investment boom helps offset some of the impact from surging energy costs, while warning that economic resilience could be nearing its breaking point.

The IMF expects the global economy to grow at 3.1% in 2026, up from the 3% projected in July, but slower than the 3.5% rate last year. For 2027, it kept the forecast unchanged at 3.4%.

The UN agency expects inflation at 4.1% in 2027, above the 3.9% it projected in July – when it estimated the Strait of Hormuz would reopen by mid-July, with conditions broadly returning to pre-war levels by March 2027. For the current year, it maintained its 4.7% outlook.  

“The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits,” Silvana Tenreyro, economic counsellor and director at the IMF research department, told reporters Tuesday, urging policymakers to restore fiscal space and supply-chain security.

The IMF now estimates that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March next year and return to pre-war state by October. Gulf crude exports averaged 88% of pre-conflict levels in September as traffic picked up, the international body said. 

The report was released at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok this week, where finance ministers and central bank governors from the fund’s 191 members are meeting to discuss geopolitical tensions, mounting public debt and artificial intelligence. 

AI-related investment gave the global economy a “demand impulse” that helped activity in the first half of the year hold up better than expected, despite the Middle East war and trade tensions, the IMF said. Financial markets also stayed largely calm, which the fund said may partly reflect “AI-related exuberance.”

For now, “use of buffers and adaptability have helped economies weather the negative shocks,” the IMF said, citing measures such as diversifying fuel sources, tapping strategic reserves that have contained the energy-market turmoil unleashed by the Middle East war. 

But that cushion is “rapidly narrowing” in the near term, it said. Global oil reserves are being drawn down by about 2.7 million barrels a day, nearing levels that could trigger sharp price moves, and energy constraints could impair the AI-led momentum. The growing unease over governments’ fiscal health also adds to the headwinds. 

Tenreyro said monetary policy should remain “sufficiently restrictive” to return inflation to target in a timely way, and that central bank independence is critical as governments face mounting financing pressure.