Bitcoin Index Signals ‘Extreme Fear’ – Perfect Time to Begin Accumulation?

has shown resilience over the past week, despite its fear and greed index plunging to ‘extreme fear’ territory for the first time since January 2023. Despite continued selling pressure in the crypto market, positive developments have helped prevent further declines in Bitcoin’s price. Currently, buyers and sellers are locked in a tight struggle as Bitcoin searches for direction.

German Government Sells Off Bitcoin

This week, the German government’s transfer and subsequent sale of Bitcoins dominated the crypto market agenda. These sales, which have been ongoing since June, intensified significantly. Bitcoin tested the bottom level in the $54,300 range once again but rebounded, indicating strong buyer presence in the market.

The positive momentum in U.S. Bitcoin ETFs has helped mitigate the impact of Germany’s sales. The assets in the German government’s Bitcoin wallets have now fallen to levels that are less market-influential, with less than 10% of the initial BTC holdings remaining—equivalent to approximately 4,925 BTC, or $285 million.

Since mid-June, the German government’s $3 billion BTC sell-off has disrupted market stability and dampened optimism. However, this pressure is expected to ease soon. Meanwhile, the looming Mt. Gox repayments add another layer of uncertainty.

Mt. Gox Repayments Begin

Last month, Mt. Gox announced it would start repaying creditors, distributing approximately $9 billion in Bitcoin and over the next three months. While this is a concern for the Bitcoin market, the repayments are expected to be less damaging than Germany’s bulk sales because the amounts will be smaller and more dispersed. Many users may also choose to hold their Bitcoins, anticipating future price increases.

US Inflation and Fed Policy Influence

Recent U.S. data showed a decline, leading to increased that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. A shift to looser monetary policy could boost risky assets like Bitcoin by lowering dollar yields and credit costs.

Bitcoin, sensitive to Fed policy, surged at the beginning of the year when a rate cut was anticipated but then declined as inflation rose and the Fed adjusted its outlook. Currently, expectations of one or two rate cuts this year are seen as supportive for Bitcoin, albeit less dramatically than earlier in the year.

Cryptocurrency Fear and Risk Appetite Index

The cryptocurrency fear and risk appetite index has fluctuated, first rising in June due to miner sales and later falling due to pressures from the German government and Mt. Gox. This week, the index dropped to 35, entering the fear zone. A similar decline occurred last August-September when Bitcoin faced selling pressure and market anxiety.

Despite short-term triggers for decline, long-term positive developments like the Fed’s potential rate cuts and the anticipated Bitcoin halving strengthen predictions that the cryptocurrency market is on the cusp of a bull season.

Bitcoin Faces Price Compression Amid Volatility…