CNBC Daily Open: Waiting for Warsh

Hello, this is Leonie Kidd coming to you from London.

The moment everyone has been waiting for could be the week’s biggest disappointment.

A great deal has been written about Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh this week, and what he may — or may not — say during his much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech.

Read on for more.

The market event of the week will come when Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh takes the stage in Jackson Hole on Friday.

But will the new Fed boss keep investors guessing on the central bank’s rate path and his views on the Treasury’s intervention in the bond market?

Prediction markets see low odds that Warsh will address these key matters in his address. As of Thursday afternoon, prediction market traders see just a 16% chance that he will mention the “bond market” and an 8% chance he says “yield curve,” two terms that could reference the highs seen in Treasury yields last week.

A CNBC Survey found that 45% of respondents do not expect Warsh to expand on the rate outlook in his Jackson Hole speech. Analysts also doubt the chairman will hint at the Fed’s decision next month.

Speaking to CNBC ahead of the speech, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said “now is the time to act” on raising interest rates, while Kansas City Fed chief Jeff Schmid warned inflation was “stubborn” and “sticky.”

Stock markets are in wait-and-see mode, with U.S. futures broadly flat. This follows a day of gains across Wall Street, led by Nvidia which added more than $400 billion in market value after it’s blowout earnings.

In more technology news, a federal judge in California has ruled that the Pentagon’s efforts to blacklist Anthropic earlier this year was illegal.

“We welcome the court’s ruling that this supply chain risk designation was unlawful,”  an Anthropic spokesperson told CNBC. “We remain focused on working productively with the government to harness AI for our national security so all Americans benefit from this technology.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled that he could target Chinese banks as part of the administration’s plans to impose secondary sanctions on economic “enablers” of the Iranian regime.

The move puts fresh pressure on relations between Washington and Beijing ahead of a much-anticipated visit to the U.S. by Chinese Premier Xi Jinping. Both U.S. and Chinese officials are proceeding with preparations for the state trip.

The first presidential debate took place in France on Thursday, with seven candidates laying out their campaign strategies.

The main point of contention is addressing France’s debt levels and budget deficit, which is among the highest in the Euro Zone.

— Leonie Kidd

Please note that…