China’s rare missile test will push wary Asia-pacific countries to close

China’s rare launch of a ballistic missile from a nuclear submarine into the Pacific, demonstrating the sea-based leg of its nuclear arsenal, will push countries in the region to wall themselves off from Beijing by tightening defense ties.

A People’s Liberation Army Navy submarine fired the missile, carrying a dummy warhead, toward international waters at 12:01 p.m. Monday, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. The missile “landed precisely within the designated waters,” it said, calling the launch “part of China’s routine military training” that targeted no specific country.

The launch was Beijing’s first strategic missile test into the region since September 2024, when it fired a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile into waters near French Polynesia — its first known ICBM test there in four decades.

Rather than drawing regional powers into its orbit, the test will likely push them to deepen defense ties with one another to counter China’s growing military might, according to analysts.

“This assertiveness from Beijing should serve to drive U.S. allies in Asia closer together,” said Ely Ratner, former U.S. assistant secretary for defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs. The test underscores the speed and scale of China’s military modernization, including nuclear forces, he added.

Beijing’s military modernization and expanding arsenal had already been driving regional governments toward one another, and “this test launch will likely fuel those concerns,” said Jeremy Chan, senior analyst at Eurasia Group.

“China primarily used this missile launch to test and demonstrate its second-strike nuclear capability,” said Chan, noting the sea-based test followed the 2024 land-based launch. “Presumably the next test will be an air-based missile.”

He expects greater cooperation in joint training, arms sales, and defense spending, among countries such as Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the Philippines.

Beijing has spent years assembling a nuclear triad — the ability to deliver warheads from land, air and sea — an arsenal that would strengthen its position in any regional crisis or conflict with the U.S.

The missile type, location and where it was fired from or landed remains unclear. The state-run media Global Times cited a military expert as saying it was likely the JL-3 — China’s most advanced submarine-launched ballistic missile, capable of reaching the continental U.S. from waters off the Chinese coast, according to the U.S. Department of Defense.

In a statement late Tuesday, Chen Xi, Chinese defense ministry spokesperson, said the test launch “achieved its intended targets” and neighboring countries were notified in…