Brad Lander’s bid for Congress splinters Democrats’ labor alliance

Conventional wisdom would suggest that Dan Goldman cruises to re-nomination in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for New York’s 10th congressional district. Scandal-free, two-term incumbent representatives who maintain a community presence, stay out of the national media spotlight and vote nearly entirely in line with their party rarely see bruising challenges from among their own ranks. And yet, Goldman finds himself in the midst of what has turned into an ugly, contentious battle for his political life. 

Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who finished a distant third in the Democratic primary for city mayor last year — after a cross-endorsement with Mayor Zohran Mamdani that consolidated the progressive vote — hopes to capitalize on the anti-establishment sentiment sweeping through Democratic primaries nationwide. With endorsements from progressive figures like Mamdani and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and organizations like the New York Working Families Party, Lander has sought to position himself distinctly to Goldman’s left. 

Indeed, Lander’s candidacy serves as one of several crucial tests for Mamdani’s political influence to come this Tuesday, as well as a high-profile benchmark for how much division over Israel influences election outcomes among Democrats. Lander boasted the Mamdani endorsement on the very first day of his candidacy in December, before the new mayor had even been sworn in. “[Brad] has been a trusted ally and partner of mine, and I’m proud to support him,” Mamdani stated. “I know he’ll keep delivering for those who need government to show up for them the most.” 

In the 12th-most leftward-leaning congressional district in the country, one that backed Mamdani by nearly 25 percentage points in November’s mayoral general election, this message seems to be striking a chord. There are a limited number of polls covering the race, and they are split, but a recent Emerson College poll showed Lander holding a staggering 34-point lead over Goldman. Prediction markets believe the race has already been decided in Lander’s favor, with his odds on Kalshi nearing 100%.

As it became clear the race was going to be a tight one, Goldman — a Levi Strauss heir and one of the wealthier members of Congress — pledged to match up to $1 million in campaign donations.

To claw back lost ground, Goldman also has attempted to seize on an issue that has long been at the heart of American progressivism — a strong alliance with organized labor. Around 20% of workers in New York City are union-affiliated, doubling the nationwide rate. For political contests across the city, this fact makes unions key electoral allies, with…