What energy insiders in DC are saying about oil prices and a possible Iran

By Finance News On Jun 13, 2026

POWER POINT

What I’m hearing from energy insiders

If you want to know where oil prices are going next, there is perhaps no better place to be than the Global Energy Forum in Washington, DC this week. Hosted by the Atlantic Council, the event is fantastic, with a unique global macro focus that includes more than 1,000 attendees from 85 countries. The forum gives us an opportunity to speak with the women and men running energy companies and policies around the world.

I had the privilege of having many great conversations, chats, and meetings. A few of those were off the record. But we also had two decidedly on-the-record conversations with both Energy Secretary Chris Wright and TWG Global partner and former Biden energy bigwig Amos Hochstein.

The current Secretary of Energy made some news with us to kick things off at the Forum. In our chat, Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that ship traffic in and around the Strait of Hormuz is rising. I pressed him a touch more on the topic, and he answered with, “I would say [ship traffic] is rising very meaningfully.” That’s not many words, but it was enough words to move a few billion dollars in oil futures. Oil immediately dropped once the headlines from our conversation hit the wires, and CNBC ran a big story on it.

The next day, President Trump made an even larger splash, commenting that the power of the U.S. Navy is helping a growing number of ships pass safely through the Strait. He posted to his social media account:

As with many of the President’s remarks, the comments are attracting attention. Draw your own conclusions, but based on what I know, here’s my take:

First, the “200 ships” number will be higher than many estimates you see elsewhere. Before you automatically discount it, however, keep in mind that it is nearly impossible for anyone without access to military data or expensive satellite data to know exactly how many ships have gone through Hormuz. It’s because more ships are turning off their location tracking transponders until they are safely away from Iran. Some are escorted by our great U.S. Navy. Others may be paying the “toll” to Iran – estimated at about $1 per barrel of oil on board the ship. Others are simply making the run at night with their ‘lights’ off. Even with the wonderful job Kpler does with its MarineTraffic tracking and map, following the hundreds or thousands of ships of all kinds, shapes, and sizes around the Gulf is an insanely big job.

For reference, here’s a screengrab of all the ships floating around the Gulf on Wednesday night. Each color represents a different kind of vessel. Trying to track them all at all hours and all locations? Good luck.

It’s also important to know that oil tankers come in all shapes and sizes. A VLCC – what many might call a ‘supertanker’ – carries about 2 million barrels of oil. Some smaller tankers carry much less. Doing some…