Joe Cavatoni: Gold Price Staying Strong, Top Drivers I’m Watching Now

It was a week of downward momentum for the gold price, which fell from above US$4,800 per ounce early in the period to less than US$4,700.

Silver also trended lower, pulling back after last week’s higher levels.

Both precious metals continue to react to news about the Iran war, with the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire providing momentum midway through the week. However, since then turmoil has increased, with tensions ramping up in the Strait of Hormuz.

I heard this week from John Feneck of Feneck Consulting, who said that while it’s tough to see gold and silver prices fall, it’s not surprising given the circumstances.

Here’s how he explained it:

“It’s been seven weeks of pain. Has that been something that you did, that I did, that investors did? No — it’s the war. I mean, look at the price action. It’s telling you that the selloff was generated on March 3, which was a Tuesday, by just a lot of margin calls and people that are too leveraged out there. That’s what we call an unwinding of that type of position, where people need to sell because they’re losing money in other parts of the market, and they need to cover those positions.”

Feneck noted that gold and silver stocks have suffered as well, but encouraged investors to take the time to review whether the thesis has actually changed for their holdings:

“I just would tell investors, hang in there. You have to fact check yourself. Take the weekends and spend a few hours going through your holdings, doing homework on, ‘Hey, has this thesis changed with this stock?’

“What’s happened from March 3 to now? Not much probably with that stock, right? It’s just getting tossed around because of the volatility.”

Looking at the broader market, I also heard this week from independent macro strategist Tom Bradshaw, who identified an indicator that’s flashing a warning sign for the US economy.

“It looks at the inflation-adjusted gold and oil prices relative to their 12 month averages,” he said. “I’ve used the average of these two, and what I found is when they top 22 percent we’ve always seen severe periods of economic turmoil going back to the start of the fiat currency era.”

According to Bradshaw, this signal was triggered around 1974, 1979 and 2008 — while past isn’t necessarily prologue, he’s concerned about what’s next:

“The most significant thing about this indicator is that gold and oil are rising together … gold rising shows that investors are pricing in financial and economic risk, and oil rising shows that investors are pricing in geopolitical risk. And when you have three of these issues existing simultaneously, it definitely shows that you’ve got a lot of problems potentially on the horizon.”

Bullet briefing — Fed to meet next week, Agnico’s three gold deals

Fed gears up for meeting

Coming up next week, the US Federal Reserve will meet for the third time in 2026.

CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool shows that the central bank…