Novo Nordisk Wegovy pill beating Eli Lilly Foundayo early

When the Wegovy pill launched in January, telehealth provider LifeMD said its business doubled almost overnight. 

LifeMD went from seeing between 300 and 400 new patients a day to 600 to 1,000 new patients a day, said CEO Justin Schreiber. He knew there would be demand, but that level of interest surprised him. 

“There’s no question that the launch of oral medications has improved access,” Schreiber said. 

Tens of thousands of people have started taking Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill in the four months since it launched in the U.S., the majority of them new to the GLP-1 category. Investors will get a fresh look at the Wegovy pill’s momentum when Novo reports first-quarter results on Wednesday.

The launch has already forced investors to rethink the opportunity in oral GLP-1s – and which company might win it. While obesity and diabetes market leader Eli Lilly launched its own pill, Foundayo, last month, early signs indicate its rollout has been more modest than the Wegovy pill’s start.

“We were all in this camp of Foundayo, Foundayo, Foundayo because Lilly was talking it up and we were also concerned about making enough peptide because Novo was still coming out of shortage,” said BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman. 

Now, Novo’s early success has upended the expectations of some investors and analysts who expected the Danish company would fall behind its U.S. rival in the oral category, as it did in injectables.

Novo’s Wegovy pill uses the same main ingredient as its weekly shot. The company had at times struggled to produce enough of the peptide to satisfy the soaring demand for the injection, and the oral formulation required even more of it. Meanwhile, Lilly was telling investors its GLP-1 pill was easier to make and wouldn’t face the shortages that hindered the shots. 

Doubts about Lilly’s lock on the market emerged last summer when the company said its pill helped people lose about 12% of their body weight, on average. Seigerman noticed Novo pounced on the opportunity and started to highlight the efficacy of oral semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo’s Wegovy, which delivered almost 17% weight loss in a separate trial. 

When the Wegovy pill was approved around the New Year, Novo and its telehealth partners rolled out a high-profile promotional blitz. Ads blanketed New York City subways and TV broadcasts. The Danish drugmaker even tapped celebrities like DJ Khaled for its first-ever Super Bowl ad. 

Novo pushed the pill’s lower entry price of $149 per month and injection-like efficacy. The company used its three-month head start on Lilly to shape the narrative and combat concerns that people wouldn’t want a pill that needs to be taken first thing in the morning without food and with little water, which Novo CEO Mike…