AI data center risk for Pennsylvania GOP incumbents

The AI-driven data center boom in Pennsylvania — which includes a $20 billion investment from Amazon — is leading to political angst in districts in the Keystone State that could help decide control of the U.S. House.

The four competitive House races are in the eastern part of the state, where Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is focusing his data center expansion plans. Republicans represent all four districts and are looking to not only hold on to their own seats in November’s election but to retain control of the House, where the party holds a five-seat majority.

Political analysts say the data center dynamic could harm incumbents, who will take the brunt of public backlash for unpopular development.

All four districts are considered in play by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, which rates every congressional race. The 7th, 8th and 10th Districts are all listed as “toss-ups” by the Cook Report. Cook rates the 1st District — in Bucks County, north of Philadelphia — as “likely Republican,” so it’s also considered to be in play. It’s represented by Brian Fitzpatrick and is set to see construction from Amazon’s infusion of cash.

Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown, Pennsylvania, said bipartisan backlash around data centers has further complicated an already difficult environment for Republicans in competitive districts.

“They’re really caught between counteracting forces,” he said. “A lot of these folks are in uncomfortable, challenging positions to begin with, and [the issue of] data centers has layered another challenge.”

Borick said a rise in data center opposition has created a tightrope for Republican incumbents to walk as they aim to balance President Donald Trump‘s energy agenda and need to support AI growth with their constituents’ frustration with and opposition to the data center buildout. 

Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., whose 10th District win in 2024 had one of the closest margins in the country, said that while he’s engaged on national energy policy, he largely views data center regulation as out of his purview.

“At the end of the day, most of this stuff is … local issues for local municipalities,” he said. “As a federal guy, you know, I don’t get into local zoning and building and what municipalities choose or don’t choose. Those are local decisions.”

In the swing 7th and 8th Districts, Republican Reps. Ryan Mackenzie and Rob Bresnahan, respectively, ousted incumbent Democrats in 2024.

Data centers are being built across the U.S., fanning out from concentrations in longtime hotspots such as…