Truce on land, storm at sea — markets are counting the cost

Hello, this is Anniek Bao writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

If it feels like a lot to keep track of — that’s because it is.

Trump extended the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by three weeks, buying diplomats more breathing room, while turning up the heat on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors, by now somewhat seasoned in the art of looking past the headlines, held their nerve. But the uncertain prospect of a permanent end to the war will keep that enthusiasm in check.

The good news? It’s almost the weekend, though it’s worth remembering that the Iran war was launched on a Saturday about two months ago.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks, following a meeting in the White House with top officials.

“The Meeting went very well!” Trump said in a Truth Social post announcing the extension of the temporary truce. “The United States is going to work with Lebanon in order to help it protect itself from Hezbollah,” Trump wrote, referring to the Iran-backed militia group.

The warring powers, meanwhile, upped the ante with both Iran and the U.S. seizing ships and Trump ordering the U.S. Navy “to shoot and kill any boat” laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Amid all the mixed messaging, U.S. stocks pulled back as investors grew wary over the tenuous ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with a murky outlook for a peace deal. Stock futures were little changed, while Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed.

Brent oil futures rose about 3% to close at $105.07 per barrel on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate futures also advanced around 3% to close at $95.85. They were about 1% higher Friday.

The nearly two-month-old conflict has triggered warning calls for “the biggest energy security threat in history,” Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, or IEA, told CNBC on Thursday.

“As of today, we’ve lost 13 million barrels per day of oil … and there are major disruptions in vital commodities,” Birol told Steve Sedgwick virtually at CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore.

Also speaking at the event was former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who said the “economic coercion” from the U.S. has prompted Canadian companies to make deals with China, while flagging his frustration that international financial institutions were no longer fit for purpose.

On the business front: Meta plans to lay off 10% of its workforce, about 8,000 employees, as it continues ramping up AI investments. Nike announced a new round of layoffs, affecting approximately 1,400 employees across the organization, mostly concentrated in its technology department.

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