Tariff refunds begin on Monday. These retailers are due big paydays

U.S. importers, ranging from Target to Walmart, are due more than $160 billion in tariff refunds following a February Supreme Court decision as the Trump administration launches its claims filing portal Monday.

Hopes are high for a smooth launch of the system that will facilitate the refunds, but companies and Wall Street analysts are tempering their expectations that companies will get the money back quickly.

Trade lawyers are warning of bureaucratic hurdles, legal vulnerabilities, as well as the possibility of a last-minute appeal by the Trump administration.

“[Importers] are pessimistic that the government is going to make this easy. They’re anticipating that the government is going to make it as difficult as possible to get their money back,” said trade attorney Matthew Seligman, principal at Grayhawk Law. 

“There’s frustration because the Supreme Court already ruled that these tariffs are unlawful,” he added.

Tariff refund claims portal opens Monday

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is set to roll out a tariff claims-filing portal – known as the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or CAPE – on Monday.

Importers can submit a declaration in the system for the tariffs they paid under Trump’s now-invalidated emergency tariff authority and then expect to receive “one consolidated refund amount,” according to the CBP. Refund claims have to undergo multiple validations, program documents show.

“The idea is that all of the importers that were impacted and paid the tariffs should use this system whether they’re Walmart or a local mom-and-pop store down the street … The way they described it makes it sound a lot more expedient than we were anticipating,” said Stefan Reisinger, a partner at law firm Norton Rose Fulbright.

“There’s a fair degree of pessimism in the importing community about whether this is really going to work the way it’s described,” he said.

Retailers due big refunds

Analysts on Wall Street are projecting huge refunds for blue-chip retailers.

According to an April 10 analysis by Citi, Walmart is due $10.2 billion, Target is due $2.2 billion and Nike could get $1 billion back. Refunds are also expected for Kohl’s at $550 million, Gap at $400 million, and Macy’s at $320 million, the firm found.

The refunds likely won’t be built into much forward guidance from equity research teams, but could in principle provide some one-time boosts to balance sheets in coming quarters or be used for equity buybacks and debt payments.

“When asked what might be done with refund proceeds, most management teams said something like this: … ‘If refunds are received, we will consider all options in terms of what to do with the cash. We will consider needs of the business, share repurchases, debt paydown, or increasing…