Behind China’s ‘active efforts’ for an Iran ceasefire: Business trumps

BEIJING — China’s ties with countries such as Iran and Russia have raised expectations of a bigger diplomatic role, but Beijing remains focused on protecting its own domestic interests, including global exports.

That stance underpins Beijing’s circumspect acknowledgment of reports that it pushed Iran toward this week’s temporary ceasefire. A New York Times report cited three Iranian officials as saying China played a role, while AFP cited U.S. President Donald Trump.

China has made “active efforts” to end the conflict, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday, when asked by the press about the reports. She emphasized that Foreign Minister Wang Yi had made 26 phone calls to representatives of countries including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Germany and Iran since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28.

But Beijing stopped short of confirming direct mediation.

China called for an “immediate stop” to military operations after U.S.-Israel strikes against Iran in late February. When asked on March 3 about Iran’s counterattacks, China’s Foreign Ministry did not mention Tehran specifically, urging instead for “all parties” to prevent the conflict from spreading.

“What Beijing did is not really about direct intermediation,” said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“What Beijing did is, more precisely, broker[ed], facilitated the ceasefire,” she said Friday on CNBC’s “The China Connection. “From that perspective there’s nothing [that has] changed with regards to Beijing’s foreign policy. It does not mean Beijing is becoming more active.”

Instead, she noted Beijing is concerned about the risk of a global downturn from the war that would hurt its export-oriented economy.

Net exports contributed to about one-third of China’s GDP last year, despite heightened U.S. tariffs, leaving its economy exposed to disruptions in global trade.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned Thursday that global growth would slow even if the ceasefire holds, citing lingering uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait handles about one-fifth of global oil supply, connecting the Persian Gulf on the coast of Saudi Arabia with the rest of the world. While China is the primary buyer of Iranian oil and relies on the waterway for just under half of its seaborne oil imports, that represents just 6.6% of China’s total energy consumption.

Still, China faces “immense pressure due to rapidly rising energy costs, and hopes the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened soon,” said Hai Zhao, a director of international political studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-affiliated think tank.

As of January, Beijing held enough crude stockpiles to meet demand for three to four months, according to estimates. Data show that Iran has been sending oil through the strait to China since the war began.

However, gasoline prices in China jumped 11% in March from the prior month, and authorities have raised the…