Lebanon, nuclear tensions and Hormuz in focus ahead of U.S.-Iran talks
Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif speaks during the 80th session of the UN’s General Assembly (UNGA) at the United Nations headquarters on Sept. 26, 2025 in New York City.
Taylor Hill | Getty Images
Delegates from the U.S. and Iran are set to enter talks in Pakistan on Saturday, as major disagreements threaten to undermine the fragile two-week ceasefire.
Already, Tehran has accused Israel of violating the terms of the ceasefire and put negotiations at risk, as the IDF continues to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing over 300 people there on Wednesday.
Though Lebanon was mentioned in the original ceasefire framework drafted by Pakistan, the U.S. and Israel maintain it was not included in the deal.
This key difference of opinion threatens to torpedo negotiations. Peace in Lebanon is not clearly included in the U.S. 15-point plan, but it is explicitly referenced in Iran’s 10-point plan.
But Lebanon is not the only sticking point between the two sides. Differences also remain in who will control the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the future of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities.
War in Lebanon continues
Announcing the ceasefire on Wednesday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on X that fighting would pause across the region – including Lebanon.
Israel was quick to challenge his assertion, insisting that the reprieve would not include its northern neighbor, proceeding to carry out its heaviest bombardment of the country in decades on Wednesday.
Iran responded by warning against further attacks, writing on X that its allies form an ‘inseparable’ part of the ceasefire, and that violations carry ‘explicit costs and STRONG’ responses.
“The Israeli government is not keen to see any rapprochement between the United States and Iran, and the war in Lebanon is one of the main cards that Netanyahu has in destabilizing any peace efforts,” Maziyar Ghiabi, director of Persian studies at the University of Exeter, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Friday.
In an attempt to prevent further attacks on Beirut, the Lebanese government reiterated its call to enter direct negotiations with Israel, an offer Netanyahu has since accepted.
The Lebanon front is likely to figure in discussions in Islamabad, as its inclusion in an end to regionwide fighting remains an open question.
Control over Hormuz
The question of who controls the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route for oil and gas, is yet unresolved.
Iran wants to retain full control over the passage and charge a fee on vessels transiting through the Persian Gulf, using the proceeds to fund the country’s reconstruction.
It is demanding that shipping firms pay tolls in cryptocurrency in exchange for safe transit, the Financial Times reported Wednesday morning.
Trump, on the other hand, said the ceasefire hinges on “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” in an X post on Tuesday.
The potential for Iran to heavily toll ships is a key sticking point, a…
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