Markets hold breath as Trump’s Iran deadline

Hello, this is Dylan Butts writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Suspense is building ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, or face attacks on its power plants and bridges. 

Trump has delayed this deadline before. However, on Monday, he reiterated his threats, signaling a greater willingness to follow through.

Will Washington’s threats strengthen its hand at the negotiating table? Are we in for another Trump TACO? The outcome is uncertain. But here’s how markets are reacting to the approaching deadline. 

Trump said Monday that the U.S. had received Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal, but described it as “not good enough,” ahead of the approaching Tuesday deadline and threats against Iranian civilian infrastructure. 

Still, Trump also struck a more measured tone in some comments on Monday, telling reporters that Tehran was acting as an “active, willing participant”  in negotiations.

“They would like to be able to make a deal. I can’t say any more than that,” he said.

Meanwhile, Axios reported Monday that the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators were discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.

Those developments were enough to sustain cautious investor optimism on Wall Street. The S&P 500 rose for a fourth session on Monday, as investors weighed the possibility of de-escalation.

However, oil markets were less positive. Prices edged higher after Trump doubled down on his threats against Iran, saying the U.S. would decimate every bridge and power plant in Iran by midnight EDT (0400 GMT) Wednesday, over a period of four hours.

U.S. futures were little changed on Monday night as investors continued to digest new developments. 

Beyond geopolitics, momentum in artificial intelligence remains a key market driver. Broadcom expanded its chip partnership with Google and Anthropic, underscoring surging demand for AI infrastructure. 

In more dramatic news, OpenAI on Monday sent a letter to the attorneys general of California and Delaware, urging them to investigate “improper and anti-competitive behavior” by xAI founder Elon Musk and his associates, as a high-profile trial between the two sides nears.

— Dylan Butts 

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