The Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, a batch of economic data, and several notable earnings reports are all on the docket this week. However, the biggest event for Wall Street will arguably be out in California, as Nvidia holds its influential AI technology conference. Well, that is what we would usually say heading into Nvidia’s GTC — where Jim Cramer will be this week with a who’s who of CEO interviews, including Jensen Huang himself. Not only is the AI chipmaker the world’s most valuable company, but large swaths of the market are riding the AI buildout wave. But things are different this year. 1. The reality of the moment is that the most important thing for both Wall Street and Main Street is what happens with the Strait of Hormuz and, by extension, oil prices during the Iran war. It’s not hyperbole to say that, as far as the stock market is concerned, it’s all that matters. GTC takes a back seat. So does Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even if there’s some intrigue around how the central bank would handle oil-driven inflation at the same time the labor market is cooling. As we discussed in the early days of the war, oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. From corporate income statements to bank accounts, higher oil prices represent a large, unavoidable cost that competes with all other purchases. For that reason, the stock market will likely continue taking its cue from oil. Investors will likely cheer anything that suggests vessels bearing flags other than Iran and China will soon be able to pass through the Strait safely. On the other hand, signs that the vital shipping route for a fifth of the world’s oil remains largely off limits will pose a problem for stocks. Still, we must keep tabs on everything else that would usually hold more significant sway over the market. In the event the Strait does indeed open, we would expect to see buyers rush back into the market in search of anything that was taken back on fears of higher-for-longer oil prices. 2. Nvidia’s GTC kicks off Monday with a keynote from Jensen. Perhaps the biggest thing to watch for is an update on Nvidia’s rumored inference-focused AI chip, following its licensing agreement with startup Groq late last year. We did a deep dive into Groq on Friday, explaining why a chip targeting the daily use of AI models is so critical. Outside of any Groq-related news, we’re listening for updates on Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin chip family, which is on pace to start shipping to customers in the second half of 2026. Additionally, any fresh details on Rubin’s successor architecture — dubbed Feynman after theoretical physicist Richard Feynman and planned to debut in 2028 — will be noteworthy, as Nvidia continues to push the envelope on innovation to stay ahead of the competition. Despite being known for its graphics processing units (GPUs), we’re also likely to hear a lot about Nvidia’s central processing units (CPUs) thanks to the rise of agentic AI. Prepare to…
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