How long will the Iran war last? Experts weigh in on the debate

Since the U.S. and Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran last weekend, Washington has been keen to stress that the military action will be over in a matter of weeks and won’t turn into a so-called “forever war.”

But experts say the U.S. could easily get bogged down in “Operation Epic Fury” if the Iranian regime proves more resilient than expected, and that could mean the conflict drags on.

“What we’re seeing is going to be more complicated than the White House may have hoped,” Suzanne Maloney, Brookings Institution vice president and director of foreign policy, told CNBC Tuesday.

“Obviously, the start of the conflict appeared to be tremendously successful with the very quick announcement that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, had been killed, that was a huge breakthrough in many respects and the U.S. and Israel have been able to do immense damage to Iran’s military capabilities.”

“But the day after is going to be immensely complicated as well, and I am not optimistic that we’re going to see a quick end to this conflict, because the Iranians are escalating across the region and that is their long-standing game plan,” she said.

When airstrikes began to target Iran’s leadership and military sites last Saturday, killing Khamenei in his compound within hours, it quickly became apparent that the attacks would not be a case of “one and done.”

But U.S. President Donald Trump has said in the last week that the military operation in Iran would be over in “four to five weeks” and top officials, from Vice President JD Vance to Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth, have stressed that this will not be a prolonged, low-burn conflict of the type seen in Afghanistan or Iraq.

Such so-called “forever wars” have proved contentious and unpopular with the American public and are particularly frowned upon by Trump’s MAGA fanbase who want the president to prioritize domestic rather than foreign policy. Just one in four Americans supports the attacks on Iran, a Reuters/IPSOS poll found in the last week, and there have been protests in Washington against the strikes.

The U.S. and Israel initially stated their primary aim was to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program once and for all, but those war aims appear to have shifted this week, with the stated objectives ranging from destroying Iran’s ballistic missile program to wanting to protect the American public from an imminent, but…