Khamenei’s death raises questions about Trump’s China trip

BEIJING — Uncertainty is growing over U.S. President Donald Trump‘s high-stakes trip to China after Washington targeted a second foreign leader in two months.

Trump announced over the weekend that joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran killed its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In early January, the U.S. also captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their residence.

Analysts say those actions could complicate Trump’s high-stakes trip to Beijing.

“President Xi Jinping won’t feel easy about the death of the top leader of Iran,” said George Chen, partner at The Asia Group, noting Beijing’s relatively good relations with Tehran and Caracas.

“How can Xi feel everything is normal and alright and be prepared to welcome Trump to visit in [a] happy mood?” he said. Chen added that “investors should manage their expectations on what Trump can achieve for his China trip — if he still goes.”

Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing from March 31 to April 2, following a fragile trade truce with China reached in late October. It would mark the first trip by a sitting U.S. president since 2017.

But Beijing has yet to confirm the dates.

China’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned Khamenei’s killing and called it “a grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security.” Beijing urged for an immediate ceasefire, although it was less direct about the U.S. role than it had been after Maduro’s capture.

“I worry the U.S. side might use Iran, if it’s going poorly, to delay the trip,” said a foreign business executive tracking meeting preparations very closely, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

“I think the risk [of the trip falling apart] is on the U.S. side more than the Chinese side,” the executive added.

U.S.-based prediction markets signaled a greater likelihood of a delayed Trump trip.

As of late Monday morning, Polymarket showed a sharp drop in expectations that Trump would visit China by March 31, to 42%, from 83.9% on Feb. 21, while wagers on a visit by April 30 remained high at 81%.

Kalshi showed a slight drop in expectations that Trump would visit China by 2027, though it remained a high 91%.

While many analysts still expect the trip to proceed, it’s less clear how U.S. businesses will navigate plans for deals in the world’s second-largest economy.

Several U.S. executives had been expected to accompany Trump on his Beijing trip, following a pattern of business delegations following leaders of different countries on their trips this year to China in a bid to strike deals.

“Prior to the attack on Iran, many American CEOs were already unwilling to go with Trump to China. Now the situation is even more tricky,” according to an active member of the American business community in China,…