Japan election becomes high-stakes gamble for Takaichi amid tougher

By Finance News On Jan 30, 2026

TOKYO, JAPAN – JANUARY 27: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C), Japan Innovation Party Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura (L) and Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Fumitake Fujita (R) hold up their hands during an election campaign rally on January 27, 2026 in the Akihabara area of Tokyo, Japan. Official campaigning for the general election for the House of Representatives, scheduled for February 8, began today. (Photo by Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images)

Tomohiro Ohsumi | Getty Images News | Getty Images

As Japan heads to the polls on Feb. 8, voters are weighing familiar concerns such as the cost of living, wages and the weak yen as they cast ballots in the Lower House election.

Beyond the economy, however, the vote is also shaping up as a test of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi herself, with analysts saying the fiercely conservative leader has effectively turned the election into a referendum on her leadership.

“She’s trying to make it as a referendum on whether the people accept [her] as a prime minister or not,” said Kazuto Suzuki, director at the Institute of Geoeconomics, a Tokyo-based think tank.

Takaichi has made little effort to downplay the personal stakes. On Jan. 19, she said she was “putting my future as prime minister on this election” and asked voters to decide whether they could entrust the management of the country to her.

If the LDP manages to gain a clear majority in this election, it will be entirely attributable to Takaichi’s personal popularity — little else has changed since July when the LDP was drubbed at the polls.”

Kristi Govella

Japan Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies

The strategy reflects Takaichi’s high approval ratings, which until recently had stood above 70%. The prime minister is seeking to translate that personal popularity into votes for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, whose own approval remains far weaker.

“[Takaichi is] betting on her high levels of public approval and fragmentation among the opposition parties to carry the day,” said Mireya Solís, director of the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.

Takaichi currently leads an untested coalition of the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party, following the end of a 26-year partnership with Komeito in October.

While her personal ratings remain strong, support for the LDP itself lags at just under 30%, underscoring the gap between leader and party.

Jesper Koll, expert director at Tokyo-based financial services firm Monex Group, told CNBC in December that Takaichi was an “inspiration” to both older voters and, in particular, younger Japanese.

Her personal appeal, rather than her economic policies, may prove decisive, Koll said, potentially driving a landslide victory.

“Takaichi is the living example of a self-made woman rising to the top against all the odds — self-made, a normal working-class family background, neither money nor Brahman, but hard work, dedication, passion, and willingness to do what is right.”