AI wasn’t the biggest engine of U.S. economic growth in 2025

The popular narrative that artificial intelligence is the engine keeping the U.S. economy alive appears to be overstated, according to recent analyses.

The AI boom has reshaped market valuations, driven large investments and record bond issuance to finance data centers, and heavily influenced gross domestic product, or GDP, especially in early 2025. This led many economists and market participants to suggest AI investment was the savior of an otherwise-stagnant domestic economy.

However, a January report from MRB Partners U.S. economic strategist Prajakta Bhide reveals that consumption was the most crucial driver of U.S. GDP growth last year, which is usually the case in periods of economic expansion. AI-related capital expenditures were the second-biggest driver, she said.

“AI is an important part of the growth story, but it’s not the only part of the growth story. That’s a narrative that’s out there, that if we didn’t have the AI capex, GDP would have slumped last year. And that’s simply not true,” Bhide said in an interview with CNBC. “Still, it’s the U.S. consumer that continues to drive the expansion.”

Bhide found that without making any adjustment for imports, A.I.-related components seem to have added around 90 basis points, or 0.9%, to real GDP growth on average between the first quarter to the third quarter of 2025, or a little under 40% of average real GDP growth over the period. When adjusted for the real imports of computers, peripherals and parts, semiconductors and related devices, and telecom equipment — or AI-related equipment — then the net average contribution of A.I.-related investments is smaller, between 40 to 50 basis points, or about 20-25% of real GDP growth excluding these imports between the first and third quarters.

GDP is comprised of four components: consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. Imports don’t count since it measures domestic production. Given that a lot of high-tech equipment is imported, AI’s GDP value is smaller than one might suspect, Bhide said.

Also, even though data centers get a lot of headline attention, she found that it was investments in software and computers that were AI’s most important contributions to GDP growth in 2025.

“Although a negative shock to the optimism around A.I. implies a risk to GDP growth, the more realistic (and smaller) estimate of A.I.’s growth impact after adjusting for imports dispels the popular notion that the U.S. economy would falter without it,” Bhide wrote in the Jan. 8 report. “Without an A.I. boom, there would have certainly been less GDP growth last year, but there would also be fewer imports, so that overall real growth would still have been decent, above 1.5%, due to solid personal consumption.”

Bespoke Investment Group in December similarly dispelled notions of AI contributions to GDP in a post on X, publishing a chart…