Some investors see Venezuela opportunity in Maduro’s ouster

The future of Venezuela remains unclear after the U.S. launched a ground attack and ousted President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. But amid the uncertainty, some investors see the potential for lucrative, long-term opportunities in the South American nation that has long been closed to much international business.

At least Charles Myers, chairman of the consulting firm Signum Global Advisors, thinks so.

“This is a major infrastructure play, I think it could be as big as $500 billion over the next 10 years,” Myers said on Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” 

“I think people are being far too pessimistic. This is a massive opportunity across multiple sectors,” said Myers, who is organizing a trip to Venezuela with “investors, multinationals, and asset managers” that is set for March.

He did not name the others who would accompany him on the trip, which he said is being organized independent of the State Department and the U.S. government.

Others view the situation as more fraught.

Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured and brought to the U.S. on Jan. 3. President Donald Trump said in the aftermath that the U.S. would run Venezuela and in an interview with The Atlantic threatened that Acting President Delcy Rodriguez would “pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,” if she opposed his administration’s actions.

Rodriguez at first pushed back on Trump’s comments but more recently has signaled an openness to work with the U.S.

Until more details emerge on the state of Venezuela post-Maduro, some still see the country as closed for business.

“When you think about the regulations that were in place, the investing environment, nothing’s changed – not yet anyway.” said Robert Koenigsberger, managing partner and chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management.

“An investor can’t simply just fly to Caracas – if the airport were opened —  and just start knocking on doors and meeting people, and say, ‘hey,'” he said. “Venezuela is littered with sanctioned individuals.”

Myers noted that foreign investment will largely be contingent on security guarantees, though he said the U.S. military presence off the coast of Venezuela is reassuring. And he acknowledged that sanctions are a limiting factor, though he said he would not be surprised to see some of those lifted in the coming months.

A further opening up of the country — like Venezuela’s return to the debt capital markets and the reactivation of the Caracas Stock Exchange — could spur even greater investment down the line, he said.

“This is not a short term investor trip. It’s a chance to get in and really kick the tires,” Myers said.

Still, in the immediate aftermath of Maduro’s overthrow, oil and gas companies appeared poised to benefit, though major players like Chevron, Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips have largely been silent as their shares rise.

Chevron shares jumped 5% as the only U.S. company operating in the country currently was seen by some investors as an eventual big…