Stablecoins: Evolution, Not A Revolution

Technologies tend to have a natural ceiling built into their utility and popularity. Once they’ve solved all the problems they can solve, their growth is effectively capped. As soon as all potato fans own a potato peeler, the peeler market’s growth potential is largely tapped out. Indeed, the big question around AI at the moment is how many problems it will be able to solve. The market could already be overblown, or it could be practically limitless.

What about stablecoins? They’ve grown from practically nothing at the turn of the decade to a market cap in the mid-12 digits and monthly transaction volumes in excess of $1 trillion. Citigroup expects the aggregate stablecoin market cap to hit around $2 trillion by the end of the decade. 

If we’re talking trillions, it sounds much more like AI than potato peelers.

But do stablecoins have a natural limit? Is their utility restricted to a certain range of problems? If so, where is it? How far can stablecoins grow, and what might stop them?

In order to find answers to these questions, let’s recall why stablecoins have come so far already, what will limit their future growth, and what that means for their overall utility, i.e. the range of problems they can solve.

Three reasons for stablecoins’ current popularity stand out.

Stable Prices, Low Volatility

The first reason is price stability. Many cryptocurrencies are volatile, which makes them valuable for speculation but awkward to use as everyday currencies. The value of stablecoins is, well, stable. By definition. Price stability is their fundamental value proposition.

Price stability is also arguably an advantage relative to other cryptocurrencies whose value is perpetually expected to rise. If your coins’ value will double in five years, you might be reluctant to spend them now. But if your coins will be worth the same or even a little less in five years, you better spend them before they burn a hole in your pocket.

Greater Portability 

The second is portability. Exchanging fiat for crypto can be arduous, but exchanging one crypto for another is usually much easier. So many users find it more efficient to convert fiat into stablecoins in bulk, then easily shift value between various cryptocurrencies as needed. USDT is the most traded coin overall because it works so well on the other side of any crypto trade.

In many markets, these first two factors reinforce each other. Many countries’ national currencies depreciate more rapidly than stablecoins’ pegged currencies, so stablecoins give people in those countries a way to protect their wealth from depreciation. And those same countries often use currency controls to prevent capital flight, but their citizens can often access stablecoins to circumvent those artificial barriers.

Tax Optimization

The third reason is simply taxes. Many jurisdictions — including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia — classify cryptocurrencies as commodities…