Trump’s trade war is changing how supply chain stocked up for holidays

The latest CNBC Supply Chain survey provides new data on how the global trade war has influenced this year’s holiday shopping season, and one more signal that consumer spending is holding up reasonably well amid concerns about affordability across the U.S. economy. But the survey data also suggests that the freight market remains in a vulnerable position headed into 2026, despite the Dow Jones Transportation Average recently hitting a 52-week high.

Overall, close to half (44%) of respondents said more holiday items are leaving warehouses and distribution centers compared to last year. One-third of respondents said fewer items were leaving the warehouses. The majority of respondents who said they were moving more freight said the level of increase was 5-10% in volumes.

The volume of products leaving warehouses to stores or customers also revealed what product categories are emerging as winners and losers this holiday shopping season. Housewares, apparel, and promotion items top the list, with luxury (both aspirational and traditional) and furniture (both high-end and low-end), having a softer outlook.

The majority of respondents said inventory levels in warehouses are running at two to three months, with one-third of respondents saying they have several weeks of product being stored.

Companies and organizations representing, logistics providers, freight shippers and retailers participated in the survey, which was conducted Dec. 4-Dec. 11.

Despite the trade war and tariff volatility, “retailers and brands successfully overcame obstacles, captured customer demand during peak, and achieved volumes comparable to last year,” said Kraig Foreman, president of e-commerce for DHL Supply Chain North America.

E-commerce holiday volumes, in particular, are up even more, according to the survey, with 53% of respondents reporting an increase year over year. Only 18% of respondents reported lower volumes of e-commerce goods, with the rest saying volumes were flat.

In e-commerce, the same product category strengths and weaknesses are evident. The survey respondents said promotional items, housewares and, apparel were the most-ordered by consumers. Furniture and luxury were again the laggards.

The survey results show that after the U.S. and China announced a trade truce in late October negotiated between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the reaction inside the U.S. supply chain and freight business was muted. The pause in the trade hostilities and escalating tariffs between the two nations did not result in another surge of orders for holiday replenishment, according to survey. Retailers were comfortable with the level of inventory already frontloaded, starting in June and July, after initial tariffs levels set in April were lowered for China, as well as for many other countries.

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