What is the Santa Claus Rally and Has it Arrived?

By Finance News On Dec 26, 2025

As investors bask in festive cheer, the holiday season may signal the start of the so-called Santa Claus rally.

The Santa Claus rally is a period between the final trading days of December and the first days of January when stocks tend to climb. While this seasonal uptick isn’t guaranteed, historical data shows that markets rise more often than not during this window, driven by investor optimism, low trading volumes and year-end portfolio adjustments.

Historically, the last five trading days of December and the first two of January have been a period of above-average stock gains, offering a short, sharp rally for markets heading into the new year.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Santa Claus rally has delivered an average gain of 1.3 percent for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) since 1950. The phenomenon was first documented in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, founder of the Almanac, and continues to shape investor expectations today.

As for whether 2025 will deliver a Santa Claus rally to close out the year, markets are showing signs that a late-year recovery could be possible after a choppy first half for December.

When does the Santa Claus rally start?

The Santa Claus rally typically occurs over the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. For 2025, the rally window will begin on December 24 and run through January 5 if historical patterns hold. This small opening often yields modest, yet consistent returns for investors who time the market correctly.

While the rally’s timeframe is traditionally short, its effects can ripple through the market into early January. Essentially, a strong performance during this period can set the tone for January.

However, the exact timing of the Santa Claus rally can vary. Some analysts suggest that the rally has started earlier in recent years as investors attempt to front run the effect by increasing their positions in mid-December. This shift may blur the lines between the Santa Claus rally and broader December market upswings.

Will 2025 deliver a Santa Claus Rally?

This year, the S&P 500 fell during the middle of December following a cooler-than-expected — albeit controversial — US inflation report, which raised hopes for additional interest-rate cuts next year.

Despite this downturn, analysts note that a weak start to December has often failed to derail Santa’s run. Since 1950, the S&P 500 finished the Santa Claus rally period higher in 77 percent of years, even after early month declines. By the end of the week, the index had already regained some ground, and it continued higher leading up to Christmas.

“Barring any major shocks, it will be hard to fight the overwhelmingly positive seasonal period we are entering and the cleaner positioning set-up,” Goldman Sachs’ (NYSE:GS) trading desk team wrote in a note to clients, as per Bloomberg….