What a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could mean for Europe’s gas supplies

Europe is pressing ahead with plans to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, effectively capping Moscow’s energy future in the region and leaving a bevy of stranded assets in its wake.

The dual Nord Stream 1 and 2 subsea pipelines were early casualties of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the infrastructure being sabotaged in late 2022 and the latter pipeline — costing $11 billion to build and aimed at doubling cheap Russian gas flows to Germany — never being certified for use.  

There had been speculation that the major energy infrastructure could eventually be resurrected if, or rather when, the war between Russia and Ukraine ends and there’s a peace agreement between the parties. 

However, talks to try to establish the grounds for a ceasefire have been moving at a snail’s pace with neither side willing to cross “red lines” regarding the permanent surrender of territory, be it sovereign or occupied. Speaking with British news website UnHerd, Vance said Monday that while the U.S. is going to “try to get this thing solved,” he “wouldn’t say with confidence that we’re going to get a peaceful resolution.”

Hopes of a deal have led to questions over what economic and energy links between Russia and the rest of the world could be re-established and, when it comes to Europe, whether a ceasefire could lead to a reintegration of Russian gas and the resurrection of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. 

Such a move would be highly contentious and divisive on the continent, given Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and attempts in the region to wean itself off cheaper Russian gas. 

In 2021, before the war, Russian imports accounted for about 45% of the European gas consumption. This year, estimates expect imports of 13%. 

Ukraine would be outraged by any move that benefited its invader, and Poland has called for the pipelines — one of which has never been used — to be “dismantled.”  

That said, Ukraine itself benefited from an older pipeline that passes through the country as it collected transit fees. The Russia–Ukraine gas transit agreement expired at the end of 2024, with the two countries opting not to renew it given the war. The Nord Stream pipelines were specifically designed to circumvent Ukraine and avoid such fees, but the transit agreement could be one of many levers to use during negotiations if the tap is turned back on.  

The U.S. would likely baulk at the return of Nord Stream as it has hoped to muscle out Moscow and increase its market share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales to Europe. But Germany, which is directly connected to the pipeline and whose industries are struggling with high energy costs, might find the lure and return of Russian gas supplies hard to resist. 

The European Council and Parliament in December struck a provisional agreement on regulation to phase out imports of Russian gas. It is set to implement a full ban on liquefied natural gas…