Putin’s latest warning to Ukraine shows how unlikely a peace deal is

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Moscow will take Ukrainian territory by force if Kyiv’s troops do not withdraw, signaling rigidity over a key sticking point in peace talks.

“Either we liberate these territories by force of arms, or Ukrainian troops leave these territories,” Putin, who is currently on a state visit to India, said in an interview with India Today. The comments, published by Russian state-controlled media, were translated by news agency Reuters and made in reference to Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

Russia is estimated to control more than 80% of the Donbas, where fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists started long before Russia’s full-scale invasion of 2022. The war in the region first began in 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea — a peninsular in southern Ukraine.

Capturing and officially annexing the Donbas region would enable Russia to create a land bridge to Crimea, a crucial military and trading hub for Moscow.

Under occupation, so-called referendums have shown up to 99% of residents in parts of the Donbas region voted to join the Russian Federation. Those referendums have been widely criticized as sham votes by the international community.

Putin’s comments came after he held a five-hour meeting with U.S. delegates Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — U.S. President Donald Trump’s son in law — in Moscow on Tuesday.

During Thursday’s interview with India Today, Putin said Russia did not agree with some of the points outlined in the reworked U.S. peace proposals for Ukraine, labeling the negotiation process “difficult work.”

The original 28-point peace plan — drawn up by Russian and American officials, with no input from Ukraine — reportedly included a requirement that Ukraine concede territory in the Donbas to Russia. It was redrafted following talks between the U.S. and Ukraine, whose president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that any peace deal must honor Ukrainian sovereignty.

Marnie Howlett, a lecturer in Russian and East European politics at the University of Oxford, told CNBC on Friday that the war would only end when Russia stops attacking Ukraine.

“Given the Kremlin shows a lack of genuine interest in ending the conflict, no peace agreement is likely any time soon,” she said.

“Russia has failed to take Donbas by force since 2014, as Ukrainians have made clear they will not accept the illegal capture of their territory. No ‘deal’ is possible without Ukrainians’ support, and nearly 12 years of resistance show that they are unwilling to support territorial concessions.”

Emily Ferris, a senior research fellow at defense and security thinktank the Royal United Services Institute, agreed that Moscow is unlikely to be truly invested in making peace in Ukraine without land…