China trade plummets and U.S. freight market enters recession watch

The impact of President Donald Trump‘s tariffs continues to rip through the logistics and transportation sectors, with major ports experiencing a steep drop in imports after records were set earlier this year, and volumes throughout the supply chain rolling over.

For the first time in 2025, rates for van, flatbed, and refrigerated loads in October were all lower on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, according to the DAT Truckload Volume Index.

“Freight volumes in the third quarter and October reflect what we’re seeing in the broader goods economy, with shippers drawing on inventory built up earlier in the year to reduce their exposure to tariffs and weak consumer demand,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of Analytics. “As a result, the traditional peak holiday shipping season looks virtually non-existent this year,” Adamo said.

Van truckloads were down 3% compared to September, and 11% year over year. Refrigerated truckloads were down 2% month over month, and 7% year over year. Flatbed truckloads were down 4% month over month and 3% year over year. The reduced level of dry van and temp-controlled loads that are moving now through the supply chain are goods moving from distribution centers to retailers. The causes of the trade decline range from weakness in housing and manufacturing to energy costs, and shippers pulling forward imports earlier in the year and building inventories to reduce tariff impacts.

The latest U.S. Census Bureau data, released Wednesday after a more than month-long delay due to the government shutdown, showed a significant decline in imports in the month of August after additional tariffs went into place, $18.4 billion less than the level of July imports. The import drop contributed to a 23%-plus decline in the nation’s trade deficit, according to Census.

Recent freight container tracker data shared by the nation’s second-busiest port, the Port of Long Beach, shows that Trump’s tariffs will continue to chip away at ocean freight heading to the U.S.

“You’re looking at the 16 percent decrease in Chinese imports coming to the United States,” said Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. “The decrease is across the board,” Cordero said.

The Port of Los Angeles also recorded a dip in container volumes in October.

Electronics, furniture, and toys have been identified in this freight pullback, while U.S. grain exports have also been hit by trade policy, with China increasing its purchase of soybeans from Brazil during the trade war. As part of an easing of trade tensions, China did recently commit to buying more U.S. soybeans.

The decrease in containers follows a period of trade frontloading during which retailers and manufacturers brought in freight early as they attempted to navigate multiple tariff deadlines and rate…