Buyers expect mortgage rates to drop

The majority of would-be homebuyers expect mortgage rates to continue their recent decline, and it’s one of the main reasons why they’re waiting to make a purchase, according to the findings of a new CNBC Housing Market Survey.

Rates have been creeping down over the last few months and are hovering around the lowest level in a year, with the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan now sitting at 6.17%, according to Mortgage News Daily. But nearly three-quarters of real estate agents surveyed by CNBC said most of their buyers think rates will come down further.

“My biggest challenge is when buyers hear predictions of future rate decreases, which in turn have buyers sit on the sidelines and wait to see how low they will go instead of getting out there and buying now,” said Maureen States, a real estate agent in Pittsburgh.

The CNBC Housing Market Survey is a national inquiry of real estate agents selected randomly across the United States. Responses were collected between Sept. 22 and Sept. 30. This quarter, 54 agents shared what they’re seeing in their market.

Most agents said they consider the current conditions to favor buyers over sellers, but they still listed affordability as the No. 1 reason why buyers are delaying their purchases.

Despite optimism that mortgage rates will continue to fall, agents said rates are still buyers’ top concern. That was followed by uncertainty in the economy and then just overall affordability.

That sentiment appears at least somewhat divorced from reality, however: 44% of agents reported prices are decreasing in their areas, and just 20% said they are rising.

“Sellers are still pricing for a seller’s market, and buyers are willing to wait for prices and rates to drop. It is a bit of a standoff, and folks are only moving if they absolutely must,” said Katie Kosnar, an agent in North Carolina serving Raleigh and Durham. “Right-sizing used to be a driving factor, but most sellers I’ve encountered will be paying a higher mortgage for a smaller house and just aren’t willing to make that move.”

As a result, buyers are using interest rate buydowns or turning to adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer lower interest rates, in order to offset price pressures.

Roughly 40% of survey respondents said their buyers are borrowing money from family or friends in order to afford a home. Buyers are also compromising on home size, location or features in order to bring the price down, agents said.

The vast majority of agents in CNBC’s survey said they expect home sales to either improve slightly or stay about the same in the next quarter, and about 17% expected sales to drop. Of course this varies by location, with some of the markets that heated up the most during the pandemic seeing the steepest declines, and other more affordable markets seeing bigger gains.

As for sellers, agents reported the biggest concern among that group is how long it will take to find a buyer. Some are concerned they’re pricing their home too low, and…