OPINION — Goldenomics 104: Trump’s Tariffs and Gold
This opinion piece was submitted to the Investing News Network (INN) by Darren Brady Nelson, who is an external contributor. INN believes it may be of interest to readers and has copy edited the material to ensure adherence to the company’s style guide; however, INN does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported by external contributors. The opinions expressed by external contributors do not reflect the opinions of INN and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
By Darren Brady Nelson
One of former President Ronald Reagan’s most famous quotes is “trust, but verify.” He made that remark on December 8, 1987, to then-Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev as the audience gathered on that historic day for a nuclear arms treaty.
In the wake of US President Donald Trump’s April “Liberation Day” tariffs, it is time once again to “trust, but verify.” That is, that the economy is still on track for a new “golden age of America.” And that we will continue in a “golden age,” pun intended, for investing in gold.
Tariffs are not inflation
Trump’s tariffs have added to uncertainty, but they are not inflationary per se. The famous Nobel Prize-winning monetary economist, Milton Friedman, summarized what he had learned from the most comprehensive empirical study ever undertaken on inflation in the following quote:
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. A steady rate of monetary growth at a moderate level [may allow] little inflation and much growth.”
Another monetary economist of the 20th century, but not quite as famous as Friedman, was Ludwig von Mises. He agreed with the first half of the quote above, but not the second. He also supported a gold standard, as seen below, as protection from inflation and accompanying boom-bust cycles:
“All economic activity is based upon an uncertain future. It is therefore bound up with risk.” Thus: “There is no such thing as a safe investment.” But: “The…gold standard alone is a truly effective check on the power of the government to inflate the currency.”
Tariffs are just taxes
A student of Mises was Murray Rothbard. The latter wrote in Power and Market that the burden of a sales tax falls entirely on the supplier and supply chain, not the consumers, yet tariffs inexplicably do the opposite. The former is closer to the truth, depending on elasticities.
Media pundits often claim that businesses pass forward tax increases, like tariffs, to consumers. This is a half-truth. The other half of this half-truth is that businesses take a hit, so that they invest and hire less. This means foreign businesses, more than American consumers.
And rather…
Read More: OPINION — Goldenomics 104: Trump’s Tariffs and Gold