How Trump’s policies may affect investors in these 8 market sectors
President-elect Donald Trump at a viewing of a test-flight launch of the SpaceX Starship rocket in Brownsville, Texas, Nov. 19, 2024.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
As Inauguration Day nears, investors are trying to unravel what booms or busts lay ahead under President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump’s campaign promises — from tariffs to mass deportations, tax cuts and deregulation — and his picks to lead federal agencies suggest both risks and rewards for various investment sectors, according to market experts.
Republican control of both chambers of Congress may grant Trump greater leeway to enact his pledges, experts said. However, their scope and timing is far from clear.
“There’s so much uncertainty right now,” said Jeremy Goldberg, a certified financial planner, portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, which ranked No. 37 on CNBC’s annual Financial Advisor 100 list.
“I wouldn’t be making large bets one way or another,” Goldberg said.
Sectors often fare differently than expected
Past market results show why it’s difficult to predict the sectors that may win or lose under a new president, according to Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James.
When Trump was elected in 2016, financials, industrials and energy outperformed the S&P 500 in the first week. However, for the remaining three years and 51 weeks, those same sectors significantly underperformed, Adam said.
“The market is known to have these knee-jerk reactions trying to anticipate where things go very quickly, but they don’t necessarily last,” Adam said.
What’s more, sectors that are expected to do well or badly based on a president’s policies have sometimes gone the opposite way, according to Adam.
For example, the energy sector was down by 8.4% during Trump’s first administration, despite deregulation, record oil production and a rise in oil prices. Yet the energy sector climbed 22.9% under Biden as of Nov. 19, despite the administration’s push for renewables and sustainability.
For that reason, Raymond James ranks politics eighth for its potential impact on sectors. The seven factors that have more influence, according to the firm, are economic growth, fundamentals, monetary policy, interest rates and inflation, valuations, sentiment and corporate activity.
Here’s how Trump’s policy stances could influence eight sectors: autos, banks, building materials and construction, cryptocurrency, energy, health care, retail and technology.
Automobiles
Monty Rakusen | Digitalvision | Getty Images
The auto sector — like many others — will likely be a mixed bag, experts said.
Trump’s antipathy for electric vehicles is likely to create headwinds for EV producers.
His administration may try to roll back regulations such as a Biden-era tailpipe-emissions rule expected to push broader adoption of EVs and hybrids. He also intends to kill consumer EV tax…
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