War, security and coalition math
Israeli voters will head to the polls Tuesday in an election with implications beyond the country’s borders.
It is Israel’s first election since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, which killed around 1,200 people and saw more than 250 abducted. The Palestinian Ministry of Health says Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 74,500 people. It is also the first vote since the U.S. and Israel began their joint war against Iran in February.
How Israel’s elections work
Israelis vote for parties rather than directly electing a prime minister, with the Knesset’s 120 seats allocated through proportional representation. Parties must win at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter parliament.
Because outright majorities are rare, parties typically form coalitions. The president asks a Knesset member — usually the leader best placed to assemble a 61-seat majority — to form a government. If repeated attempts fail, another election can be called.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (C) waves to his supporters during a Likud Party meet-and-greet held as part of the campaign ahead of Israel’s legislative election, at King Solomon Hotel in Netanya on October 22, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP via Getty Images)
Jack Guez | Afp | Getty Images
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the right-wing Likud party, returned to power in late 2022 with a coalition including far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. The alliance has since been strained by disputes over a Gaza ceasefire and the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men.
Recent polls put both Netanyahu’s bloc and the main opposition bloc, led by centrist former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, short of the 61 seats needed to govern, making smaller parties potentially decisive.
Arab parties are also in the running, but most of the main Jewish parties have ruled out alliances with them. More than 20% of Israel’s population is Arab, but Arab parties have rarely joined governing coalitions.
Wartime priorities
The impending vote is effectively a referendum on Netanyahu, with the Hamas attacks having “transformed Israeli society,” according to László Csicsmann, a Middle East expert at Corvinus University of Budapest in Hungary.
“Israel has been at war since October 7, 2023, and the so-called ‘seven-front war’ launched by Netanyahu has undoubtedly worn down Israeli society,” he told CNBC. “The side that can better convince voters that it can protect the population is likely to win. Other campaign issues include mandatory military service, which is particularly sensitive for religious Jewish parties and Haredi communities.”
Military service is compulsory for most Jewish, Druze and Circassian Israelis over 18, while most other Arab Israelis are exempt. The conscription of ultra-Orthodox men remains a major legal and political dispute.
The economic toll of the war is also a major issue, Csicsmann said.
“Due to the war and high military spending, economic issues are also dominating the…
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