Trump’s latest moves on Russia leave Ukraine facing a new dilemma in the

Ukraine is facing increasing uncertainty over its ability to sustain the war against Russia as a series of moves by U.S. President Donald Trump has raised fresh questions about Washington’s reliability as Kyiv’s most important military partner.

Trump’s agreement with Putin to ease sanctions for Russia to provide global markets with diesel, as well as restrictions on U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukrainian forces, has put President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a difficult position as winter looms.

Higher diesel prices – essential to transporting goods and agricultural production – tend to drive up costs across the wider economy and fuel inflation. With November’s U.S. midterm elections approaching, Trump is under pressure to bring fuel costs down.

But experts told CNBC that the diesel deal would deliver only a marginal financial benefit to Russia, and not move the needle much on global energy prices. Its wider political implications may be more significant, potentially reinforcing the Kremlin’s belief that it can secure concessions from Washington without making compromises over Ukraine.

“Russia’s main gain is political: Trump’s decision eases sanctions pressure and undermines Western unity,” Sergey Aleksashenko, senior research fellow and head of economics at the NEST Centre, told CNBC. 

Trump’s agreement with Putin was for Russia to supply the global market with 4.8 million metric tons of diesel, the equivalent of about ten days of U.S. domestic demand, or about a single day of global demand. Experts say it will do little to affect prices.

“It does not even touch the sides – it is very, very small,” Neil Atkinson, former head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

Aleksashenko estimated that the initial part of the phased agreement that covers 1.8 million metric tons of diesel could generate up to $1.25 billion in additional export revenue over three months, equivalent to around 1% of Russia’s commodity export revenues during that period.

However, the benefit to Russia’s federal budget would be substantially smaller, at less than $30 million per month, or under 0.07% of monthly federal revenues.

The deal was therefore unlikely to meaningfully strengthen Russia’s war finances, Aleksashenko said. Instead, its main benefit to Moscow is political, because it eased sanctions pressure and undermined Western unity without requiring Putin to make concessions over Ukraine, he told CNBC.

The research fellow also argued that the additional Russian diesel entering global markets is not sufficient to produce a noticeable reduction in consumer fuel prices in the short term.

“Funding the war is currently Putin’s priority, and he is prepared to increase that funding even if it means cutting all other expenditures,” Aleksashenko added, pointing to Russia’s draft budget for 2027.