Ukraine and Russia’s grain harvest under threat amid Black sea attacks

Ukraine’s harvest season is moving from wheat and barley into corn, soybeans and sunflower, and farmer Oleksandr Chumak has had a strong yield so far. That should be good news.

Instead, after 11 years of growing a range of crops in the Odesa region of southern Ukraine, Chumak has had enough.

Storage facilities across both Ukraine and Russia are filled with millions of tons of produce that would normally be sent to Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa — but are instead trapped in the warring countries.

Russian drone and missile hits on Black Sea targets intensified over the summer and into fall, making it impossible to insure commercial ships. Kyiv’s retaliatory attacks mean Russian exports are now also stuck, further squeezing global supply.

And with fatal Black Sea attacks continuing into October, prospects of a ceasefire look slim, even as Turkey ramps up efforts to broker a deal due to the risk to global food security.

Chumak says that around 80% of his grain cannot currently be sold at a profit, and he is out of cash.

A collapse in domestic prices is giving farmers like him little reason to sow for the 2027 crop in the coming months.

“For the farmers, it’s very difficult because we need to pay taxes, we need to pay rent for land, and now we are not able to do this because we are not able to sell anything,” said Andrii Dykun, chairman of the Ukrainian Agri Council.

“The only crops we are able to sell are rapeseeds and sunflower seeds. But still, the volume is not enough… So why should we plant if today we have no profits at all?”

“If our stocks will be full, it makes no sense to do any farm operations in the spring because then it’s just a waste of time and money.”

PrivatBank, Ukraine’s biggest lender, told CNBC that it had disbursed 1.53 billion hryvnia ($34.2 million) in working capital finance to agribusinesses between June and August, more than double the 718 million hryvnia lent in the same period last year. Small and medium-sized producers account for 70% of its agricultural loan book.

“Funds effectively remain tied up in grain inventories, while farms still need to cover their ongoing operating expenses and secure financing for the autumn and spring sowing campaigns,” said Yevhen Zaihraiev, chief corporate and SME business officer at state-owned PrivatBank.

“We are seeing different strategies among our clients. Some agricultural producers are selling their crops sooner, even at less attractive prices, in order to maintain sufficient operating…