No end in sight for the Iran war

The U.S.-Iran war could drag on for years, putting America at risk of overlooking China’s rise to power, according to President Donald Trump’s former defense secretary.

During a panel discussion at LSEG and Eurasia Group’s GZERO Summit in London, Mark Esper said on Thursday he saw the conflict continuing “well into 2027,” with a possibility that it could be handed to the next U.S. administration in three years’ time.

“At some point, we will reach a point where maybe both sides are willing to come to the table and find a negotiated settlement, but the challenge for president Trump will be he’s going to have to get a deal that returns the Strait of Hormuz to the status quo, which is going to be really hard, and is a deal that’s better than what [former President Barack Obama] got out of the JCPOA, and I think that’s going to be very difficult too,” he said.

“So the question is, will he be willing to make that deal and live with the consequences or how the critics judge that deal? And so you can see another path where it gets handed off to the next administration in 2029.”

Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of the event, Esper said he does not see an end to the war “in the foreseeable future.”

“I think it continues at this type of pace where we see the American blockade continue, we see occasional outbursts from either side, and it drags along,” he said.

The war, now in its eighth month, has reached an impasse, with Trump saying Wednesday that making a deal with Tehran “isn’t really something that I want to do.” According to reports, U.S. officials are considering a resumption of large-scale military operations in the coming weeks.  

Esper, who served as U.S. Secretary of Defense during Trump’s first presidential term from July 2019 to November 2020, said he had long been an advocate for “the economic strangulation” of Iran. But he said such a policy was vulnerable to impatience in Washington.

“The challenge is that policy requires time, discipline and patience, and those aren’t things that the states are typically good at doing,” he said. “So, if allowed to, I think it could have an impact. It doesn’t mean it’ll actually bring them back to the table, which would be my end, but it’s the least worst option at this point in time.”

Over the summer, Trump announced an intensification of sanctions and economic restrictions on Iran, a strategy he labeled “Economic D-Day.” The administration has since touted the success of its economic warfare…