U.S.-China rivalry and government debt loom large
Brazil’s President and presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva waves a national flag during a campaign rally in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Sept. 26, 2026.
Miguel Schincariol | Afp | Getty Images
Brazil will hold a knife-edge vote on Sunday as its presidential race kicks off — but the election’s outcome is likely to be felt far beyond the country’s borders.
Voters will head to the polls to decide whether incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — known colloquially as Lula — should remain in office or be replaced by one of 12 alternative candidates.
If no candidate wins more than 50% of votes in Sunday’s first round, the two candidates with the most support will progress to a final runoff vote on Oct. 25.
Polls point to a tight race, with frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied for support among voters.
A win for left-leaning Lula would mark his fourth presidential term, while victory for Bolsonaro is expected to mark a shift back to his father’s right-wing movement.
Lula versus Bolsonaro
Lula’s center-left Workers Party (PT) has been a pioneer of social programs aimed at lifting millions of people out of poverty — but it has been stained by corruption scandals. Lula himself spent 18 months in prison after receiving a coastal property from an engineering firm involved in the so-called Car Wash corruption investigation. Former president Dilma Rousseff, who succeeded Lula in 2010, was impeached in 2016, having been accused of budget manipulation.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest. Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 presidential election to Lula.
Bolsonaro is widely viewed as the political heir to his father, with his policy mix favoring privatization, spending cuts and close alignment with the U.S. — policies that have had recent successes across Latin America, with Bolivia, Chile, Colombia and Peru all inaugurating conservative leaders in the last 12 months.
Lula, meanwhile, has put Brazilian sovereignty at the center of his campaign. He has also pledged to reduce Brazil’s traditional six-day work week, cut income tax for low-earners and enact policing reforms.
The president has endured a rocky relationship with the Trump administration, which treated Jair Bolsonaro – dubbed colloquially the “Trump of the Tropics” – as a close ally. U.S. President Donald Trump announced 50% tariffs on Brazil in July 2025 in response to what he labeled a “witch-hunt” trial against Jair Bolsonaro.
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro, holds dolls depicting U.S. President Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro during an interview with Reuters in Brasilia, Brazil, on Dec. 19, 2025.
Adriano Machado | Reuters
Brazil’s relationship with China
Otaviano Canuto, a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution and a former executive director at the Board of the…
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