California billionaire tax threatens market as buyers say ‘enough is

As voter support for California’s proposed “billionaire tax” plummets below 50%, top luxury real estate titan Aaron Kirman is sounding the alarm, warning that the mere threat of Proposition 40 is freezing high-end transactions and driving California’s top job creators to the exit doors.

“We think this proposal is disastrous for California. It’s disastrous for the real estate market, and buyers and sellers have had enough of California taxation,” Kirman — the CEO and founder of Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California who has more than $26 billion in sales under his belt — told Fox News Digital.

“Being California is one of the highest-tax states, I think buyers and sellers, whether they’re billionaires or not, have just had enough,” he continued. “And the general public needs to understand that it’s a top-down market, and if buyers and sellers just decide to not transact in California, it affects the entire global community here.”

A recent UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll found that 45% of likely voters support Proposition 40, while 43% oppose it and 12% are undecided. That’s down from 50% support in the Citrin Center-POLITICO poll conducted earlier this year.

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The proposal — backed by the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West — would impose a one-time 5% tax on certain assets exceeding $1 billion held by people who were California residents on Jan. 1, 2026, generally excluding real estate, pensions and retirement accounts. The tax would be due in 2027, and taxpayers could spread payments over five years at an additional cost, according to the Legislative Analyst’s Office.

Supporters hold signs advocating for the Billionaire Tax Now coalition during a news conference in Los Angeles, California, on Monday, April 27, 2026. (Getty Images)

Still, Kirman argued that the possibility of the tax and broader economic pressures, including inflation and elevated mortgage rates, have created headwinds for California’s real estate market. He said those factors, compounded by state and local tax initiatives, have created a “wait-and-see” freeze among buyers and sellers.

“Interest rates aren’t helping. Inflation has been challenging. And then moving parts in California have not been easy. So when you put it all together, the general sentiment for the luxury market is frothy. Buyers are weary to get into it. And we see a lot of buyers just sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what’s going to happen,” he said.

“Billionaires and multimillionaires are studying the whole picture,” Kirman said. “Today, people are re-evaluating that and saying,…