Mayo Clinic AI Model Predicts Pancreatic Cancer Risk Years Before Diagnosis

Researchers at Mayo Clinic have designed an artificial intelligence model that can potentially predict an individual’s risk of developing pancreatic cancer years before diagnosis.

Research will be presented at the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Clinical Congress 2026, held from September 26-29 in Washington. Thousands of surgeons convene at the annual event to advance surgical quality, patient safety, and access to care.

According to the official press release, shared with the Investing News Network (INN), pancreatic cancer is rare but highly deadly, accounting for about 3 percent of all new cancers but 8 percent of all cancer deaths.

Data from the American Cancer Society, notes that there have been about 67,000 new diagnoses and 52,000 deaths so far in 2026.

“Pancreatic cancer can be curable, but only when we catch it early, and fewer than one in five patients is diagnosed in time,” said Mayo Clinic surgical oncologist and study co-author Cornelius Thiels, DO, MBA, FACS. “As a result, survival for many patients is still measured in months, not years.”

Dr. Thiels said his team set out to develop an AI model that can identify patients at greatest risk of developing cancer of the pancreas because universal screening for pancreatic cancer “isn’t feasible”.

“We know that pancreatic cancer forms over five to seven years, but the things that a clinician or patient sees don’t happen until it’s too late.”

The researchers built the AI model using Mayo Clinic electronic health records and routine lab test results to analyze 6,066 pancreatic cancer patients and 33,396 control subjects, each with up to 19 years of medical history, to detect early risk indicators.

To evaluate its ability to predict pancreatic cancer three years before diagnosis, researchers measured the model’s accuracy. It achieved an AUROC of 0.853 (where 1.0 is perfect accuracy) and an AUPRC of 0.712, demonstrating strong predictive performance with few false positives.

The model showed strong calibration, with a calibration slope of 1.08, meaning its predicted risk closely matched what actually happened to patients.

“Our model showed that a greater than 50 percent risk of pancreas cancer predicted by our model indicated an 88 percent likelihood of being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in one year,” Dr. Varghese, a surgical data scientist at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, explained.

“We built this to be as generalizable, scalable, and easy to put into practice as possible,” Dr. Varghese added. The data inputs the model relies on are captured almost universally in hospital systems worldwide, Dr. Varghese said. “If it’s shown to work, it could be used in almost any setting,” he added.

According to Dr. Thiels, the model is currently being deployed on a research basis. “We’re proving that we can move this from a retrospective research tool into our clinical environment and run it prospectively for validation,” he stated.

Dr. Thiels noted that efforts…