U.S. alliance strains complicate China strategy
President Donald Trump has spent years trying to squeeze China — imposing tariffs, cutting off access to advanced technology and pressing U.S. allies to reduce their dependence on Beijing. When he begins meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, he’ll juxtapose the longstanding bluster with the pomp and circumstance the leaders lavish on each other.
And the two-day tête-à-tête will take place as Trump confronts a China that has proved harder to isolate and allies increasingly reluctant to line up behind the U.S. to do it.
Part of that is Beijing’s doing. China has deepened trade ties around the world while building leverage of its own, most notably through rare earths. Its global trade surplus is on pace to top $1 trillion for a second straight year, reaching a record $1.2 trillion for 2025 even as its exports to the U.S. dropped.
But the shift also reflects Trump’s approach. Since returning to office, fights over tariffs, defense spending and personal spats have strained relationships with traditional allies even as Trump has pursued a more transactional relationship with Xi.
Countries Washington has traditionally counted on to magnify its power are increasingly seeking room to maneuver between the world’s two largest economies.
As a result, Trump enters Thursday’s summit facing a test of whether strains with U.S. allies have made it harder to marshal American power against Xi.
“China is presenting itself to the world as the stable counterweight to an erratic and violent United States,” said Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution think tank. “America retains unmatched power on the world stage, but leverage requires a united front and there are a shrinking number of countries willing to follow America’s lead right now.”
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, shakes hands with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prior to their consultations in New York, Sept. 20, 2026.
Bai Xueqi/ | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
Changing global order
For decades, one of the U.S.’s biggest advantages over China has been its network of allies and partners. When the U.S. restricted technology or imposed sanctions, bringing major economies in Europe and Asia along made those measures harder for Beijing to evade.
China still lacks anything comparable: The Lowy Institute, an independent Australian foreign-policy think tank, scored the U.S. defense networks at 81.4 on a scale of 100, versus 18.9 for China in 2025. But Beijing does not need U.S. allies to switch sides to erode that advantage. It only needs them to become less willing to move with Washington, Hass and other China experts said.
“When democratic countries don’t have public support for a counterpart, it raises the cost for leaders to align with the United States,” Hass told CNBC. “It lowers the cost for leaders to defy the United States.”
Trump has taken a…