Markets become accustomed to stalemate
Friday marks six months since the U.S. and Israel launched “major combat operations” in Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes on targets across the Gulf and sparking a new war in the Middle East.
What was initially expected to be a weeks-long conflict has evolved into a standoff that geopolitical analysts say has no end in sight. But the nature of the war has also shifted, with the White House turning its focus to ramping up financial pressure on Iran and its trading partners, a strategy President Donald Trump labeled “economic D-Day.”
But the conflict’s trajectory remains deeply uncertain. Ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz continue to come under attack, peace talks have seemingly collapsed, and questions hang over whether the Trump administration is willing to extend its planned secondary sanctions to China — one of Iran’s biggest trading partners.
A White House official told CNBC that the U.S. is now “entering the endgame” of its war. The Iranian government has also been approached for comment.
Markets grow accustomed to war
Oil prices remain volatile amid the ongoing uncertainty. Front-month Brent crude oil futures have gained almost 20% since the war began — but the contracts are now trading around a third lower than their April peak of $126.41 a barrel.
The oil market remains in backwardation, a phenomenon that occurs where futures contracts with immediate or near-term deliveries sell at a premium over later deliveries, suggesting an expectation that prices will fall over time.
Equity markets have also largely shrugged off the potential ramifications of the conflict, with global stocks seeing a broad rally this year as corporate earnings optimism outweighed concerns about the war’s implications for the world economy.
Brent crude oil prices
No breakthrough in sight
As the war neared the six-month milestone, Middle East experts told CNBC that while the nature of the conflict appeared to have shifted, a near-term breakthrough to bring the war to an end is unlikely.
“The conflict has lapsed into a standoff, with neither side apparently ready to escalate or make concessions,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst specializing in Iran and energy at Eurasia Group.
Brew said the U.S. had backed away from escalating strikes on Iran, seemingly deterred by the risk of significant Iranian retaliation and concerns that another round of heavy fighting would further deplete munitions stockpiles.
“Instead, Trump has opted for a pressure campaign, a ‘wait and see’ approach, hoping that economic pressure compels the Iranians to capitulate,” he told CNBC in an email — but he noted that a breakthrough “doesn’t look imminent.”
“It’s unlikely to work,” he said of Trump’s so-called “Economic D-Day.”
“Iran has been very resilient in the face of U.S. economic pressure, and while it faces the worst economic crisis since the 1980s,” Brew added. “Its leadership is more likely to resist and escalate than to give in to…
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