Massive polling misses in Wisconsin, Michigan primaries

State Rep. Francesca Hong was supposed to win Tuesday’s Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by around 20 percentage points, according to the latest public polling. Instead, the Democratic socialist lost by less than 1 percentage point.

Hong’s stunning loss to the more moderate Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley is the latest in a string of massive polling misses in primary contests for the 2026 midterm elections. The misses come as more money than ever is flowing into the electoral process, underscored by the emergence of prediction markets opening up widespread betting on elections.

In Minnesota on Tuesday night, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., by nearly 20 percentage points despite some recent polls of the Democratic Senate race showing a tight contest. Last week in Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed won his primary by only 1 percentage point after polls had him up double digits on Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich.

The polling errors are coming as progressives in the Democratic Party surge in primary elections across the country, potentially upending how one of the major U.S. political parties approaches the economy. Hong, a democratic socialist, was pushing a far-left agenda that included government-run grocery stores, higher taxes on the rich and taxpayer-subsidized childcare.

Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said that a set of potential factors may have skewed the polls in Wisconsin. That includes the chance that white progressives, who are the power center of left-wing candidates, are responding to polls at a greater clip than other Democrats. Wisconsin also does not have registration by party, meaning its primaries are open, which can make it harder to figure out who is actually voting.

“This also was, frankly, a crazy race, and there likely was a lot of change in the closing days. It may have even been the case that progressive Abdul El-Sayed’s (D) victory in the Michigan Senate primary, and subsequent Democratic handwringing about his electability, contributed to a shift toward Crowley in Wisconsin,” Kondik said.

“Hong also expanded her national profile down the stretch of the campaign, and her media appearances did little to dispel the notion that she would have been a very risky nominee for Democrats,” he said.

A big miss for prediction markets

Prediction markets in Wisconsin had a bad night, too. Just like polls, they portrayed a race that looked much more secure for Hong than in reality once the votes started rolling in.

On Kalshi, Hong…