Trump keeps saying an Iran deal is close. Markets keep believing it

President Donald Trump this week said a sweeping peace deal with Iran could be signed very soon, echoing dozens of similar claims he has made over nearly three months.

The latest example may not resonate with the average listener — after all, no deal has emerged following any of Trump’s dozens of claims so far. But despite the lack of follow-through, markets continue to react to the president’s repeated promises.

Trump has signaled or stated outright more than 30 times that a deal is nearly at hand, according to a CNBC review of the president’s social media posts and public remarks.

Stocks and oil markets, which have squirmed amid a global energy supply shock caused by the war, continue to pay close attention to Trump’s signals about a forthcoming deal, even when they don’t pan out. Meanwhile, more than 100 days into the war, Washington and Tehran seem to be even further from a deal than they were in mid-April, when they began a fragile ceasefire that was heralded as a path to a final agreement within two weeks.

“The market has had the hope that this is going to end any moment, any moment, any moment,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, told CNBC. “I still think it’s grabbing onto that hope.”

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on this report.

Trump said early Tuesday morning that the U.S. and Iran could reach a “very, very good deal” in “two or three days.” Oil prices fell in the next trading session — though they reversed course Wednesday, after Trump vowed to attack Iran “very hard” absent a diplomatic breakthrough.

Oil and markets have responded positively to Trump stoking optimism that the end of the war is right around the corner via an agreement that’s palatable to both the U.S. and Iran.

That’s been the case even in recent weeks, as the testy U.S.-Iran truce has been repeatedly undermined by military flare-ups in the Persian Gulf and as peace talks have been further strained by Israel’s attacks in Lebanon.

Feeding the dynamic is an assumption from markets and analysts that, despite the continued conflict in the Middle East, a deal will eventually be reached that ends the war and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil-shipping route.

“While geopolitical developments continue to draw large oil moves, there is some optimism that the US and Iran will reach a peace deal this month,” Deutsche Bank researchers said in a June analyst note.

While both sides are eager to show they can endure protracted war, Iran’s economy has been battered and Trump’s approval ratings have sunk amid the conflict, leading observers to believe that incentives favor a deal.

“Trump’s need for an off-ramp means de-escalation bias may still prevail and provide a floor to equities,” Barclays analysts wrote in a June 3 equity research note.

“Each time he’s…