SoftBank’s OpenAI bet is raising liquidity crunch concerns

SoftBank’s ascent to becoming Japan’s most valuable company has put the spotlight on the conglomerate, raising questions whether it is taking on too much risk through its highly leveraged bet on artificial intelligence.

Shares of the Japanese technology investment giant, led by founder Masayoshi Son, have surged about 70% this year on investor enthusiasm over AI, buoyed by the soaring valuation of chip designer Arm Holdings and expectations that OpenAI could see a blockbuster initial public offering this year. 

The rally helped SoftBank dethrone Toyota in market capitalization rankings earlier this week, cementing a dramatic turnaround for a company that only a few years ago was reeling from losses tied to its failed WeWork bet. SoftBank’s cumulative investment losses in WeWork exceeded $14 billion.

Analysts whom CNBC spoke to warned that the market’s renewed optimism on SoftBank is also masking mounting balance-sheet risks.

“Softbank has made itself into a highly leveraged bet on AI which carries significant upside as well as risk,” said Gil Luria, head of technology research at Davidson equity capital markets.

The company participated in OpenAI’s funding round last year at a reported $300 billion valuation and has continued to deepen its involvement. It secured a $40 billion bridge loan in March to help fund additional investments in OpenAI and for general corporate purposes.

As of the end of 2025, SoftBank had about 16.3 trillion yen (about $104 billion) in stand-alone interest-bearing debt, according to its financial statement.

S&P Global in March estimated that OpenAI would account for roughly 30% of SoftBank’s investment portfolio, on par with Arm Holdings, following the group’s additional $30 billion investment in the ChatGPT maker.

S&P Global Ratings revised SoftBank’s credit outlook to negative in March, saying the company’s asset liquidity and quality of its portfolio, as well as its financial capacity are “likely to deteriorate because of its additional huge investment in OpenAI.”

For some investors, the concern is not simply the amount of debt, but the overreliance of SoftBank’s future on one company.

“The risk profile of Softbank is large and getting larger. If OpenAI fails to deliver there could easily be a liquidity crunch at SoftBank,” said Richard Windsor, founder of equity research firm Radio Free Mobile.

The growing dependence on OpenAI has also raised questions over what happens if enthusiasm surrounding AI valuations cools.

“If OpenAI does not successfully IPO at the current valuation or better, that could create some pressure on Softbank given the size of the exposure,” Luria said. OpenAI’s…