Rare Earths Market Update: Q1 2026 in Review

From powering the electric vehicle (EV) revolution and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure to anchoring modern defense systems, rare earths are the invisible engine of 2026’s global economy. But with supply chains caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war, the race for ex-China sourcing has never been more key.

Long relegated to the margins of investor awareness, the group of 17 critical minerals is now firmly at the center of industrial policy, geopolitical strategy and capital allocation.

Speaking at the Benchmark Summit, held this past March in Toronto, Adam Webb, head of energy raw materials at the firm, distilled the sector’s importance into stark terms, describing rare earths as “absolutely vital for modern technology,” particularly in permanent magnets, catalysts and electronics.

That importance is no longer theoretical. As rare earths continue to be a strategic piece of the evolving geopolitical puzzle the versatile metals are again garnering headlines.

For example, Brazil’s massive but largely untapped rare earth deposits have become a central topic in renewed US-Brazil talks, as both nations seek to build supply chains outside China.

Following a diplomatic thaw between US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Washington quietly approached Brasília about a potential partnership on critical minerals in late January.

According to the US Geological Survey, Brazil holds the world’s second largest rare earth reserves, though it currently produces only a fraction of global output with limited processing capacity.

China, by contrast, controls roughly 60 percent of mining and over 90 percent of processing — a leverage point highlighted after Beijing imposed export restrictions in response to Trump’s tariffs.

The US has since accelerated efforts to secure alternatives, signing critical minerals deals with Australia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In parallel with its outreach to Brazil, Washington has been persistently pursuing access to Greenland’s vast mineral wealth and Arctic military positioning.

The Trump administration has negotiated a framework deal with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte that would grant the US “sovereign base areas” on the Danish territory and fast-track rights to mine rare earth elements.

Greenland recently approved the transfer of a controlling stake in the Tanbreez rare earths deposit to New York-based Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML), a project US officials previously discussed taking a direct stake in.