Trump’s Hormuz blockade tests U.S. ties with China and India

The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not only squeezing Iran but also ratcheting up pressure on two of its most consequential relationships in Asia — India and China.

With roughly 98% of Iranian oil exports bound for China, and a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping weeks away, Washington’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran risks destabilizing the fragile detente that the administration has carefully cultivated with Beijing.

India, with its complicated ties with the U.S., is increasingly finding U.S. policy at odds with its economic interests — most acutely in the energy shock now rippling through its economy.

Trump is scheduled to visit China in mid-May, and the administration signaled repeatedly in recent weeks that it wants the bilateral relationship stable enough to keep the high-stakes meeting on track.

“The Iran conflict, particularly the blockade, may upend this effort,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade negotiator.

Signs of friction are already emerging. Beijing, which had kept its stance on Trump’s blockade largely restrained, appeared to harden its tone on Tuesday. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun slammed the move as “dangerous and irresponsible,” and it will only “exacerbate tensions.”

More than a month into the war, Trump pulled a familiar playbook when he threatened to hit China with a 50% tariff if Beijing supplies weapons to Iran. Beijing pushed back, with Guo rejecting what he called “groundless smears and malicious linkage.”

“China will resolutely retaliate with countermeasures against any U.S. attempt to use weapons sales as a pretext for additional tariffs,” Guo said.

India, in the meantime, is facing a different type of pressure. Its heavy reliance on imported energy has left it increasingly exposed to the economic fallout from the conflict.

Earlier this month, India resumed purchases of Iranian oil and gas after a seven-year hiatus, having secured safe passage for its ships through the strait from Tehran, under a temporary U.S. waiver.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after a nearly 40-minute call with Trump on Tuesday, said the two leaders had a “useful exchange of views” on the Middle East conflict and that India “supports de-escalation and restoration of peace at the earliest.”

Even if Washington carves out special provisions for India, they are unlikely to cover the full scale of New Delhi’s gas needs, said Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia geopolitical risk advisor at consultancy Teneo.

As the U.S. blockade takes hold, India will likely halt its crude imports from Iran, said Chaturvedi, otherwise “we will see the relationship between New Delhi and Washington deteriorate.”

For now, “there is no incentive for India to risk its relationship with Washington any…