Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein says

Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein.

Volumes have already surged in the first few months of this year, the investment bank wrote in a report Tuesday, with Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, seeing about $60 billion in market volume year-to-date — more than the $51 billion in total prediction market volume in all of 2025.

Growth rates for the platforms rival the artificial intelligence boom, according to Bank of America. Analyst Julie Hoover in a note last week called Kalshi one of the “fastest growing non-AI companies” in the U.S. Weekly trading volume on Kalshi — which controls more than 90% of the U.S. prediction market — has surged to more than $3 billion today from about $100 million a year ago, she wrote.

While prediction market volumes initially jumped in 2024 around the U.S. presidential election, they eventually surpassed those levels in 2025 as sports, cryptocurrency and macroeconomic contracts became popular.

$1 trillion by 2030

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani now estimates that total market volumes in 2026 will reach $240 billion, a 370% increase compared to last year. At a compound annual growth rate of roughly 80% between 2025 and 2030, Chhugani sees prediction market trading volume of $1 trillion a year by the start of the next decade.  

Chhugani expects increased regulatory clarity at the federal level will boost the potential market, and that blockchain tokenization and integration with cryptocurrencies is enabling more liquidity. The makeup of traded contracts is also likely to change, he said.

“We expect [the] institutional market to develop around economics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events,” he wrote. While sports contracts make up more than 60% of trading volume today, he sees that being cut in half by 2030. “We also expect hedging demand from corporates, [and] insurance firms exposed to specific event risks.”

While Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the space, new names are building a presence. Robinhood, DraftKings and Underdog are all starting or have already launched their own prediction market verticals, Bank of America’s Hoover said.

Public proxies

Robinhood and Coinbase Global are the key public market proxies for the private prediction market companies, Chhugani said. Robinhood’s prediction markets hub is now a year old, generating $350 million in annual recurring revenue, and accounting for some 30% of Kalshi total volume. The market is the digital finance platform’s fastest-growing business, and could…