Possible U.S.-Iran talks revive hopes of easing Hormuz tensions

Oil prices extended declines after settling sharply lower Tuesday amid rising optimism that the Middle East conflict could see a diplomatic resolution.

U.S. crude oil futures for May delivery fell 0.88% to $90.4 per barrel as of 8:35 p.m. ET. Futures for international benchmark Brent for June delivery lost 0.31% $94.47 per barrel.

A second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations are being considered, though no official schedule has been set, a White House official told CNBC on Tuesday. 

President Donald Trump later said the talks could take place “over the next two days” in Islamabad, according to the New York Post. 

Trump had earlier indicated discussions were proceeding slowly and negotiations would likely be held in Europe, but called back shortly after with updated details, the report said. 

The renewed push for talks comes after earlier reports that talks aimed at resolving the Middle East conflict could resume ahead of the expiry of a fragile two-week ceasefire.

“Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy,” the IEA said in a report published Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs said in a note published Wednesday that flows through the strait remain constrained, running at just about 10% of normal levels, or roughly 2.1 million barrels per day on a four-day moving average.

The U.S. blockade targeting Iranian ports could further pressure remaining flows, with Washington reporting that several vessels had already turned back in the first 24 hours, even as transit via non-Iranian ports continues.

Goldman noted that disruptions to crude production in the Middle East appear less severe than initially feared. It estimates average shut-ins in the Persian Gulf at about 8 million barrels per day in March, below earlier expectations and lower than the International Energy Agency’s 10 million barrels per day estimate, partly due to higher use of storage and oil held on tankers.