Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2026 — in one chart

Inflation spiked in March as the Iran war pushed up gasoline and other prices for consumers.

The consumer price index, a key inflation measure, rose 3.3% in March from a year earlier, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That’s up from 2.4% in February.

The March data release represents the first CPI report since the Iran war started on Feb. 28, and illustrates the financial fallout for consumers from the first month of fighting in the Middle East.

While the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire late Tuesday, economists said that the inflationary effects of the war will likely take several weeks or months to unwind — and that a prolonged conflict risks raising consumer prices more broadly, to areas like food, airfare and manufactured goods.

“Inflation is a problem and it’s only going to get worse,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “Clearly, the war in Iran is doing significant damage.”

“We were cautiously optimistic on inflation heading into this year,” as price pressures like those from tariffs were unwinding, said Thomas Ryan, a North America economist at Capital Economics.

“Basically, we’re on hold now, just to see what happens with the energy price shock,” Ryan said. “If it’s long-lasting, we become more concerned about leakage” into other areas of consumers’ wallets, he said.

The Iran war’s inflationary bump also complicates the Federal Reserve’s job of setting interest rate policy.

At the March meeting, officials at the central bank said they expect to cut interest rates once this year, though some said it may be necessary to raise borrowing costs if the Iran war leads to sustained higher inflation.

Fed officials also said they would need to remain “nimble” as they weighed the impact the war had on inflation, which continues to hold above the central bank’s 2% target.

“Inflation is well above anyone’s comfort level — both consumers and the Federal Reserve — and that’s not going to get any better, at least in the next few months,” Zandi said.

Iran has effectively choked off ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway used to transport about a fifth of the world’s oil supply. The blockade appears to largely still be intact even after the ceasefire, according to reports.

Oil prices — as measured by Brent crude oil, a global price benchmark — spiked to $118 per barrel by the end of March from roughly $70 per barrel before the conflict began. Prices have since declined, but remain…