Ceasefire or not, Hormuz tanker traffic may take months to recover

The U.S. and Iran’s “fragile truce” has lifted hopes that a full reopening of the Hormuz Strait can end the energy supply crunch that threatens to cripple the global economy.

But shipping and maritime experts say traffic through the critical energy artery will not normalize anytime soon.

President Donald Trump said Tuesday the ceasefire is contingent on the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the Strait, which typically carries around one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

Vice President JD Vance reiterated on Wednesday that the Iranian leadership has agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran, however, has made it clear that the reopening would be conditional, subject to coordination with the country’s armed forces and technical limitations.

The fragile truce has done little to restore confidence for tankers to traverse through the strait, particularly as signs of the ceasefire collapsing loom with Israel escalating the deadliest attacks on Lebanon.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to see a meaningful rebound, with just four transits recorded on Wednesday, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“Vessels appear to still be making use of the altered transit route west along Larak Island,” it said.

More than 400 oil-laden tankers and dozens of LNG or LPG carriers remain anchored outside the Gulf, awaiting signals for passage, according to MarineTraffic, a ship-tracking platform using radio-based AIS, or automatic identification system.

The actual transit volumes may be higher than the data suggests, as many tankers turn off their transponders to avoid potential targeting by Iran, but remain at a fraction of pre-war levels.

Transit conditions, toll arrangements, and the legal framework for passage remain undefined, deterring ship owners from passing through the waterway, according to maritime research firm Windward.

“Whether Iran will maintain control of Hormuz during talks is unclear but all signs point to the Islamic Republic refusing to give up its leverage during the two-week period,” Windward said in a note on Wednesday.

The first 48 hours of the ceasefire will be crucial to shipowners’ willingness to enter the Strait, Windward added.